Fordham University '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.44 (fleet 3.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–52 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 21–32 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 12–14 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 12–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (96 matches) the record is 44–52 against 36.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.6). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 22 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Prosser Trophy MAISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.69 | 2.99 | 5–10 | 4.1 | +0.30 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2022-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 3.87 | 11–5 | 7.0 | +1.28 | 3.7 | 2% |
| 2022-03-12 | St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.69 | 3.87 | 4–6 | 1.8 | +1.18 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 2022-03-05 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 0.89 | 1–11 | 3.6 | −1.79 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2020-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.71 | 2.07 | 4–10 | 5.8 | −0.64 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2020-02-29 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.41 | 4.88 | 8–4 | 2.2 | +2.47 | 10.9 | <1% |
| 2019-03-16 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 2.52 | 9–3 | 8.7 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.12 | 1.03 | 2–3 | 3.3 | −1.09 | 1.0 | 95% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
