| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 6–2 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 6–2 |
| 4 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 4–4 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 3–5 |
| 8 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 3–5 |
| 9 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 16,723 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 42 matches (52%) with a log-loss of 0.753 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.89 ± 0.33: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 4% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.61 | 11.13 | 7–3 | 3.9 | +1.52 | 3.3 | 3% |
| 8 | Fordham University | 8.34 | 9.53 | 4–6 | 1.8 | +1.18 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 10.59 | 11.63 | 8–2 | 6.3 | +1.05 | 1.2 | 19% |
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 9.38 | 10.02 | 4–4 | 2.9 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 7 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.44 | 9.31 | 4–6 | 4.2 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 6 | George Washington University | 9.75 | 9.13 | 4–6 | 5.3 | −0.61 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 4 | Harvard University | 10.71 | 9.89 | 4–4 | 5.3 | −0.82 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 3 | Roger Williams University | 11.62 | 10.27 | 6–4 | 8.4 | −1.35 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 9 | College of Charleston | 9.64 | 7.51 | 1–7 | 3.7 | −2.13 | 3.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Snyder | Fordham University | 2.69 | 3.87 | 4–6 | 1.8 | +1.18 | 2.0 | 8% |
| Kenneth Corsig | Fordham University | 2.55 | 3.73 | 4–6 | 1.8 | +1.18 | 2.0 | 8% |
| Hunter Cutting | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.84 | 3.02 | 3–2 | 1.6 | +1.18 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Jc Hermus | U. S. Naval Academy | 3.79 | 4.83 | 8–2 | 6.3 | +1.05 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Samuel Gavula | University of Pennsylvania | 2.71 | 3.44 | 2–1 | 1.5 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Jonas Nelle | Harvard University | 3.19 | 2.38 | 4–4 | 5.3 | −0.82 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Spencer Cartwright | Roger Williams University | 3.83 | 2.48 | 6–4 | 8.4 | −1.35 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Aidan Hoogland | Roger Williams University | 3.64 | 2.28 | 6–4 | 8.4 | −1.35 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Axel Stordahl | College of Charleston | 3.00 | 1.09 | 1–5 | 3.0 | −1.92 | 2.5 | 99% |
| Charlie Anderson | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.52 | 0.57 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −1.96 | 2.2 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Quakers | Hawks | Crimson | Bears | Colonials | Seahawks | Rams | Cougars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 8–2 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | L | L | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 7–3 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | L | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 6–4 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 4–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 4–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 4–6 | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–6 | W | L | L | W | L | W | ✕ | L | L |
| Fordham University Rams | 4–6 | L | W | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Crimson | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Quakers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Quakers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 2-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
