Cayuga Lake Invite

HostCornell
Date09/18/2021
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	305
2	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	348
3	Cornell University	Big Red	353
4	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	380
5	Fordham University	Rams	438
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	571

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers C	7	8	2	5	12	6	1	2	4	2	6	7	4	3	69	Javier Garcon '25 Meghan Perez '22
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers A	2	11	9	15	3	4	5	1	1	13	3	6	2	8	83	Benton Amthor '23 Eva Leggett '24
Cornell University	Big Red A	14	12	3	4	2	1	3	3	3	7	15	4	10	12	93	Brooke Shachoy '22 Amelia Neumann '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen C	17	5	5	12	1	3	6	6	7	6	13	1	9	5	96	Richard Gleason '24 Katherine Klempen '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen B	9	2	1	8	10	8	7	12	2	4	14	16	1	4	98	Will Murray '24 Tory Mileti '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen A	11	15	7	9	13	2	11	10	9	5	1	2	14	2	111	Jake Vickers '22 Sarah Smith '22
Fordham University	Rams C	5	4	6	1	6	10	4	15	16	14	16	8	3	7	115	Kenneth Corsig '23 Edward Harrison '22
Cornell University	Big Red C	10	1	11	14	15	9	2	17	12	16	2	3	8	6	126	Bridget Green '25 Gabbi Delbello '23
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers A	1	13	14	3	11	16	13	8	5	8	5	12	5	13	127	Christopher Sharpless '23 Shaanti Choi-Bose '24
Cornell University	Big Red B	3	6	8	11	7	7	9	13	15	17	10	13	6	9	134	Meredith Moran '23 Jana Laurendeau '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners A	13	17	13	7	5	OCS	12	4	17	1	12	5	16	1	142	John Mckenna '24 Ellary Boyd '24
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers C	12	7	12	17	8	5	10	14	10	3	9	15	12	11	145	Nick Chisari '23 Mark Modzelewski '23
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers B	6	10	16	10	4	12	16	11	6	9	17	10	11	14	152	Spencer Barnes '24 Kaitlin Brzostek '22
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers B	15	3	4	2	16	15	14	16	11	12	4	11	13	16	152	Jordan Bruce '24 Hannah Bast '25
Fordham University	Rams B	8	9	15	6	9	14	15	9	8	10	11	18	17	10	159	Porter Kavle '22 Kristen Healy '24
Fordham University	Rams A	16	16	10	13	14	11	8	7	13	15	8	9	7	17	164	Clayton Snyder '22 Lauren Miller '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners B	4	14	17	16	17	13	18	5	14	11	7	17	18	18	189	David Pearce '23 Rachel Beisswenger '22
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners C	18	18	18	18	18	17	17	18	18	18	18	14	15	15	240	William Weinbecker '25 Rachel Mckenzie '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A
Cornell University Big Red	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Fordham University Rams	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B
Cornell University Big Red	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Fordham University Rams	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C	5C	6C	7C	8C	9C	10C	11C	12C	13C	14C
Cornell University Big Red	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Fordham University Rams	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Cornell University	Brooke Shachoy '22	Amelia Neumann '25
Big Red	Meredith Moran '23	Jana Laurendeau '23
	Bridget Green '25	Gabbi Delbello '23
Fordham University	Clayton Snyder '22	Lauren Miller '23
Rams	Porter Kavle '22	Kristen Healy '24
	Kenneth Corsig '23	Edward Harrison '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jake Vickers '22	Sarah Smith '22
Statesmen	Will Murray '24	Tory Mileti '22
	Richard Gleason '24	Katherine Klempen '22
SUNY Maritime College	Benton Amthor '23	Eva Leggett '24
Privateers	Spencer Barnes '24	Kaitlin Brzostek '22
	Nick Chisari '23	Mark Modzelewski '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	John Mckenna '24	Ellary Boyd '24
Mariners	David Pearce '23	Rachel Beisswenger '22
	William Weinbecker '25	Rachel Mckenzie '22
University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Sharpless '23	Shaanti Choi-Bose '24
Quakers	Jordan Bruce '24	Hannah Bast '25
	Javier Garcon '25	Meghan Perez '22

Conditions — 09/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 75°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 7.7 kn

Gusts to 18.7 kn

From NW (310°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover79% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1019.2 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · N 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.24

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.27 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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