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NY Maritime Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 23 26 49
2 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 46 25 71
3 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 67 43 110
4 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 55 67 122
5 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 99 61 160
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 77 93 170
7 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 90 MRP 89 MRP 179 MRP
8 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 102 92 194
9 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 84 MRP 113 MRP 197 MRP
10 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 81 124 205
11 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 137 108 245
12 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 116 136 252
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 5 23 Michael Munger '20
Audrey Morin '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 4 4 1 6 8 3 6 3 2 2 2 46 Gerard Eastman '21
Ana Schonander '20
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 6 1 2 2 5 2 4 8 4 5 6 10 55 Juan Lejarraga '19
Kaitlin Brzostek '22
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 2 5 9 8 7 3 2 4 9 7 7 4 67 Clayton Snyder '22
Edward Harrison '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 7 6 1 11 2 5 8 7 2 6 RAF 9 77 Louis Margay '22
Fiona Lobon '22
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 10 10 10 6 3 12 7 3 7 4 3 6 81 Nick Chisari '22
Christopher Hamilton '22
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 2 6 10 4 9 5 5 5 3 10 1 84 MRP Luke Welker '21 [1-12]
Amanda Yeam '22 [1-6]
Gemma Nguyen '20 [7-12]
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 8 8 5 7 8 4 6 1 6 9 5 3 90 MRP Scott Gittens '20
Marc De Verteuil '20
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 3 9 8 4 9 7 9 10 12 8 8 12 99 Thomas Capozzi '19
Camryn Smithwick '22
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 9 7 12 5 10 6 11 12 8 11 4 7 102 Isabel De La Torre '20
Elizabeth Keeney '19
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 11 11 7 9 11 11 10 9 10 10 9 8 116 Jennifer Suter '19
Emily Robinson '22
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 12 12 11 12 12 10 12 11 11 12 11 11 137 Dane Brazinski '21
Elizabeth Cloherty '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 5 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 5 1 3 25 Phillip Schofield '21
Louisa Bjerke '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 1 1 2 1 6 2 3 3 1 3 1 26 Kyle Easton '20
Blair Reilly '22
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 4 2 2 4 6 2 4 2 2 2 9 4 43 Sam Johnsen '21
Sarah Jane Lefebvre '21
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 6 6 4 5 8 3 3 4 7 9 4 2 61 Max Balanevsky '22
Paige Hoffman '21
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 5 4 8 11 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 5 67 Clara Guarascio '22
Kyle Gelderman '21
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 3 3 5 3 4 4 5 8 12 7 7 8 89 MRP Cameron Wallace '22
Aryeh Kozuch '22
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 7 10 7 8 10 11 7 7 5 8 6 6 92 Antonia Leggett '19
Zoe Novello '21
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen DNF 8 12 12 3 5 8 6 8 6 5 7 93 Jack Carminati '22
Lucy Ackerman '22
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 9 7 11 7 9 10 11 10 6 10 8 10 108 Charlotte Smith '22
Sophia Faram '19
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 8 9 6 6 5 9 9 9 9 4 10 9 113 MRP Samuel Parsons '21 [1-12]
Rachel Mckenzie '22 [1-6]
Rachel Beisswenger '22 [7-12]
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 10 11 9 9 11 8 10 11 10 11 12 12 124 Galen Ng '20
Josiah Ng '19
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 11 12 10 10 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 136 Martino An '21
Matthew Montera '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights101010999888777
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions111222333444
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red222111121212111111
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 1333444555666
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 2444333222111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen555666777888
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners999101010111111121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen111111121212111222
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers777888999101010
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels666555444333
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange888777666555
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers121212111111101010999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights101010999888777
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions111222333444
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red222111121212111111
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 1333444555666
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 2444333222111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen555666777888
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners999101010111111121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen111111121212111222
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers777888999101010
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels666555444333
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange888777666555
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers121212111111101010999

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From SSE (158°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.9 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1022.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at NY Maritime: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.30 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →