Fordham University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.42 (fleet 1.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–35 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 21–10 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 13–25 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (69 matches) the record is 34–35 against 26.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 2.06 | 2.64 | 1–3 | 0.7 | +0.58 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2019-03-16 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.15 | 1.22 | 5–4 | 6.5 | −0.93 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 1.91 | 4.61 | 5–1 | 2.5 | +2.71 | 4.8 | 2% |
| 2019-03-02 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.85 | 1.58 | 10–2 | 10.4 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2018-03-24 | Seahawk Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.75 | 3.41 | 8–16 | 2.5 | +1.67 | 7.4 | <1% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 1.44 | 1.82 | 5–9 | 3.9 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 35% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 13.9 | 2.00 |
| Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 1.19 |
| MAISA North Series Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 2.00 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.4 | 1.46 |
| Central Early Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.2 | 3.48 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Seahawk Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.7 | 2.63 |
| Central Spring Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.9 | 2.12 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SHU TROPHY | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.6 | 2.58 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.5 | 2.06 |
| Coho Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.0 | 1.59 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Spring Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sacred Heart Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.8 | 1.80 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Thomas Capozzi |  Wellesley High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
