| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 7–2 |
| 2 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal | 6–3 |
| 4 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 6–3 |
| 5 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 3–6 |
| 9 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 3–6 |
| 10 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,846 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 47 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.586 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.20 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 24% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Roger Williams University | 10.89 | 11.78 | 7–3 | 5.4 | +0.89 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 4 | Dartmouth College | 10.90 | 11.72 | 7–3 | 5.5 | +0.82 | 0.9 | 23% |
| 5 | Boston University | 10.09 | 10.80 | 5–4 | 3.7 | +0.71 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 8 | Fordham University | 9.24 | 9.93 | 3–6 | 1.9 | +0.69 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 6 | Boston College | 10.34 | 10.40 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 1 | Yale University | 12.24 | 12.06 | 8–2 | 8.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 9 | Tufts University | 10.15 | 9.73 | 3–6 | 3.7 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 3 | Stanford University | 11.78 | 10.96 | 6–4 | 7.5 | −0.82 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 10 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 9.07 | 8.14 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.93 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 7 | Bowdoin College | 11.00 | 9.79 | 3–6 | 5.3 | −1.21 | 2.0 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Greenhouse | Dartmouth College | 3.20 | 6.20 | 6–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 4.9 | 2% |
| Conner Harding | Roger Williams University | 3.96 | 4.84 | 7–3 | 5.4 | +0.89 | 1.0 | 21% |
| Spencer Cartwright | Roger Williams University | 3.25 | 4.14 | 7–3 | 5.4 | +0.89 | 1.0 | 21% |
| Roberto Stevens | Fordham University | 3.16 | 3.85 | 3–6 | 1.9 | +0.69 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | Fordham University | 3.22 | 3.91 | 3–6 | 1.9 | +0.69 | 0.6 | 29% |
| Javier De Urdanibia Panos | Boston University | 3.29 | 3.77 | 4–4 | 3.3 | +0.48 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Wade Waddell | Boston College | 3.96 | 4.02 | 4–5 | 3.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Nicholas Baird | Yale University | 4.40 | 4.21 | 8–2 | 8.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Christopher Keller | Tufts University | 3.24 | 2.82 | 3–6 | 3.7 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Trevor Long | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 3.87 | 3.04 | 1–6 | 1.7 | −0.83 | 0.4 | 90% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2.45 | 1.52 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −0.93 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Audrey Giblin | Dartmouth College | 3.40 | 2.22 | 1–3 | 1.9 | −1.17 | 0.7 | 95% |
| Alden Grimes | Bowdoin College | 3.43 | 1.92 | 1–2 | 2.0 | −1.51 | 1.1 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Hawks | Cardinal | Green | Terriers | Eagles | Bears | Rams | Jumbos | Engineers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 8–2 | ✕ | W | W | L | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 7–3 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Stanford University Cardinal | 6–4 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | L | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 7–3 | W | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 5–4 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | L |
| Boston College Eagles | 4–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 3–6 | L | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–6 | L | L | L | W | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–6 | L | L | W | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 1–8 | L | L | L | L | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Terriers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Green | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Terriers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Engineers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Cardinal | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Terriers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Big Green | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Big Green | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 1-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
