Yale University '21
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 45.15 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.082 rating points from 216 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 62–43 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | — | 9–3 |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | — | 6–2 |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | — | 15–6 |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | — | 32–32 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (104 matches) the record is 61–43 against 69.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Women's Team Race | crew | 2.14 | 2.02 | 9–3 | 9.2 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2019-10-26 | Dave Perry Team Race | crew | 2.22 | 2.13 | 6–2 | 6.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2019-03-03 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | crew | 3.32 | 1.48 | 1–4 | 2.3 | −1.84 | 1.5 | 99% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | crew | 2.50 | 3.23 | 13–2 | 11.5 | +0.72 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 2018-04-28 | Women's National Team Race Invitational | crew | 2.67 | 2.63 | 11–7 | 11.2 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 2.72 | 2.25 | 9–4 | 10.0 | −0.47 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2018-03-10 | Rudkin Team Race | crew | 2.79 | 1.14 | 2–12 | 6.2 | −1.65 | 4.5 | >99% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | crew | 2.86 | 1.44 | 10–9 | 13.4 | −1.42 | 3.4 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 8.7 | — |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 3.7 | — |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A, B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 7.6 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 12 | 3.9 | — |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Crew | A, B | 13 | 5.5 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 4.0 | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 6.3 | — |
| Friis Trophy | Crew | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Crew | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 3.0 | — |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 4.0 | — |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 12.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 11 | 12.1 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 1 | Crew | A | 14 | 5.2 | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | A | 12 | 9.2 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's National Team Race Invitational Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 6.2 | — |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 6.1 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 3.2 | — |
| Rudkin Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 6.0 | — |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Crew | TR | 19 | 42% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 11 | 5.5 | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | B, C | 8 | 7.8 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 4.5 | — |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 7.6 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 2.9 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 6.6 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | C | 7 | 7.7 | — |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 6.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
