Rudkin Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/10/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–1
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	11–3
3	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	9–5
4	Boston University	Terriers	7–7
5	Eckerd College	Tritons	7–7
6	College of Charleston	Cougars	6–8
7	Yale University	Bulldogs	2–12
8	Boston College	Eagles	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,751 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 56 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.558 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.36: an orderly event, more orderly than 80% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	11.48 school +0.17, home +0.39	Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.62 Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.66 Conner Harding / Michael Mcbrien 3.62	85%	13–1 (93%)	+1.1
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	10.11 school +0.08	Cutter O'Connell / Julia Cho 3.09 Trevor Long / Marcus Abate 3.40 8–0 Ty Ingram / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.76 8–0 Ty Ingram / Marcus Abate 3.74 3–3 Stephen Duncan / Sameena Shaffeeullah 2.84 3–3	55%	11–3 (79%)	+3.3
3	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	9.54 school +0.18	Christian Filter / Hannah Konkel 2.93 7–3 William Hawk / Emily Gonzalez 3.00 7–3 Matthew Kaplan / Marie Bergsund 3.39 4–2 William Hawk / Marie Bergsund 3.02 2–2 Christian Filter / Louisa Lindgren 2.95 2–2 Matthew Kaplan / Emily Gonzalez 3.36 2–2 Matthew Kaplan / Louisa Lindgren 3.42 3–1	41%	9–5 (64%)	+3.2
4	Boston University Terriers	8	9.36 school −0.32	Robby Gearon / Lexi Pline 3.12 Josh Dochoda / Hannah Davis 3.22 Ravi Parent / Grace Mooradian 3.29 2–6 Ravi Parent / Meredith Harrington 3.32 5–1	36%	7–7 (50%)	+1.9
5	Eckerd College Tritons	5	9.55 school +0.12	Andrew Schoene / Sabine Zinserling 3.42 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Delphine Carroll 3.20 Geoffrey Nelson / Kim Kusminsky 2.90 5–5 Samuel Shannon / Kim Kusminsky 2.44 2–2	42%	7–7 (50%)	+1.1
6	College of Charleston Cougars	2	10.22 school +0.52	Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.73 Jack Brown / Oliver Parsons Steven Leuck / Payton Alexander 4–6 Carter Cameron / Payton Alexander 2–2	57%	6–8 (43%)	−2.0
7	Yale University Bulldogs	4	9.71 school +0.20	Casey Klingler / Claudia Loiacono 3.23 Christine Klingler / Catherine Mollerus 2.79 Louisa Nordstrom / Claire Huebner 3.45	44%	2–12 (14%)	−4.2
8	Boston College Eagles	7	9.45 school +0.18	Isabella Loosbrock / Emma Perry 3.10 Sophia Reineke / Lily Mcgrath 3.27 Drake Lyon / Eliza Wright 2.75 0–8 Scott Rasmussen / Megan Bamford 2.99 1–5	38%	1–13 (7%)	−4.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.11	11.41	11–3	7.7	+1.30	2.9	5%
3	Bowdoin College	9.54	10.58	9–5	5.8	+1.04	2.4	6%
1	Roger Williams University	11.48	12.32	13–1	11.9	+0.84	0.6	35%
4	Boston University	9.36	9.97	7–7	5.1	+0.62	0.9	21%
5	Eckerd College	9.55	9.88	7–7	5.9	+0.33	0.3	37%
6	College of Charleston	10.22	9.59	6–8	8.0	−0.63	0.9	92%
7	Yale University	9.71	8.06	2–12	6.2	−1.65	4.5	>99%
8	Boston College	9.45	7.23	1–13	5.4	−2.21	5.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.40	6.40	8–0	5.2	≥+3.00	4.7	3%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.76	5.06	11–3	7.7	+1.30	2.9	5%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	3.00	4.04	9–5	5.8	+1.04	2.4	6%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.62	4.46	13–1	11.9	+0.84	0.6	35%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.62	4.46	13–1	11.9	+0.84	0.6	35%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	3.29	3.90	7–7	5.1	+0.62	0.9	21%
Geoffrey Nelson	Eckerd College	2.90	3.27	5–5	4.2	+0.37	0.2	41%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	3.42	3.76	7–7	5.9	+0.33	0.3	37%
Karl Rasmus Sayre	Eckerd College	3.20	3.53	7–7	5.9	+0.33	0.3	37%
Samuel Shannon	Eckerd College	2.44	2.70	2–2	1.7	+0.25	0.0	59%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.73	3.10	6–8	8.0	−0.63	0.9	92%
Jack Brown	College of Charleston	2.71	2.08	6–8	8.0	−0.63	0.9	92%
Isabella Loosbrock	Boston College	3.10	0.88	1–13	5.4	−2.21	5.7	>99%
Drake Lyon	Boston College	2.75	-0.25	0–8	3.0	≤−3.00	5.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
1	2	Boston University	Yale University	42%	upset
1	3	Eckerd College	Bowdoin College	54%
1	4	College of Charleston	Boston College	69%
1	5	Roger Williams University	Yale University	86%
1	6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	53%
1	7	Boston University	Boston College	51%
1	8	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	66%
1	9	Eckerd College	Yale University	50%	upset
1	10	Roger Williams University	Boston College	87%
1	11	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
1	12	Boston University	College of Charleston	29%	upset
1	13	Eckerd College	Boston College	41%	upset
1	14	Bowdoin College	Yale University	46%	upset
1	15	Roger Williams University	Boston University	90%
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	51%
1	17	Bowdoin College	Boston College	54%
1	18	Boston University	Eckerd College	53%
1	19	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	66%
1	20	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	76%
1	21	Bowdoin College	Boston University	55%
1	22	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	73%
1	23	Eckerd College	Roger Williams University	14%	upset
1	24	Yale University	College of Charleston	46%	upset
1	25	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	73%
1	26	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	88%
1	27	Yale University	Boston College	53%
1	28	Eckerd College	College of Charleston	45%	upset
2	29	Roger Williams University	Boston University	89%
2	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	56%
2	31	College of Charleston	Boston College	74%
2	32	Eckerd College	Yale University	49%	upset
2	33	Bowdoin College	Boston University	54%
2	34	Roger Williams University	Boston College	87%
2	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Yale University	65%
2	36	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	56%
2	37	Bowdoin College	Boston College	54%
2	38	Boston University	Yale University	41%	upset
2	39	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	74%
2	40	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	53%
2	41	Boston College	Yale University	46%	upset
2	42	Bowdoin College	College of Charleston	29%	upset
2	43	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	73%
2	44	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	86%
2	45	College of Charleston	Yale University	56%
2	46	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	73%
2	47	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	87%
2	48	Boston University	Eckerd College	54%
2	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	48%	upset
2	50	Roger Williams University	Yale University	85%
2	51	Boston University	Boston College	50%
2	52	Bowdoin College	Eckerd College	47%	upset
2	53	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	84%
2	54	College of Charleston	Boston University	75%
2	55	Bowdoin College	Yale University	46%	upset
2	56	Eckerd College	Boston College	41%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Engineers	Bears	Terriers	Tritons	Cougars	Bulldogs	Eagles
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	5–2	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Yale University Bulldogs	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Engineers	Bears	Terriers	Tritons	Cougars	Bulldogs	Eagles
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	3–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–3	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Boston College Eagles	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
2	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
3	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
4	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
5	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
6	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
7	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
8	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
9	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
10	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
11	Polar Bears	1-5-6 DNF	def.	Engineers	2-3-4 RAF
12	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
13	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
14	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
15	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
16	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
17	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
18	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
19	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
20	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
21	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
22	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
23	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
24	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
25	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
26	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
27	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
28	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
29	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
30	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
31	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
32	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
33	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
34	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
35	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
36	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
37	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
38	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
39	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
40	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
41	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
42	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
43	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
44	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
45	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
46	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
47	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
48	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
49	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
50	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
51	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
52	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
53	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
54	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
55	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
56	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18	Michael Mcbrien '18 Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Cutter O'Connell '18 Stephen Duncan '20 Trevor Long '19 Ty Ingram '18	Julia Cho '20 Sameena Shaffeeullah '19 Marcus Abate '20
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 Matthew Kaplan '19 William Hawk '18	Hannah Konkel '20 Louisa Lindgren '19 Marie Bergsund '20 Emily Gonzalez '20
Boston University	Terriers	Josh Dochoda '20 Ravi Parent '18 Robby Gearon '19	Hannah Davis '19 Grace Mooradian '21 Meredith Harrington '18 Lexi Pline '19
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Geoffrey Nelson '18 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 Samuel Shannon '19	Sabine Zinserling '20 Kim Kusminsky '19 Delphine Carroll '19
College of Charleston	Cougars	Augie Dale '19 Carter Cameron '19 Jack Brown '21 Steven Leuck '20	Katherine Lounsbury '20 Payton Alexander '19 Oliver Parsons '21
Yale University	Bulldogs	Casey Klingler '18 Christine Klingler '20 Louisa Nordstrom '20	Claudia Loiacono '21 Catherine Mollerus '21 Claire Huebner '18
Boston College	Eagles	Drake Lyon '18 Isabella Loosbrock '19 Scott Rasmussen '20 Sophia Reineke '21	Eliza Wright '20 Emma Perry '19 Megan Bamford '18 Lily Mcgrath '18

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 54% · Pressure 1008.9 hPa

Temperature

38°F

↑ 40°F ↓ 32°F

Feels like 26°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.0 kn

avg · max 16.2 kn

Gusts to 24.7 kn

From W (278°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1008.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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