Boston College '19
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.19 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 79 | Fall 2018 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.91 (fleet 4.06) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 52–57 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 29–23 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 15–28 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 6–1 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (107 matches) the record is 50–57 against 61.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−11.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.17 | 3.34 | 10–10 | 9.4 | +0.17 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2019-04-06 | NEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.15 | 3.49 | 3–2 | 2.6 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2019-03-30 | 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.10 | 2.71 | 4–4 | 4.7 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 2.62 | 7–3 | 7.9 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.98 | 2.65 | 5–4 | 5.5 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.94 | 2.62 | 4–6 | 4.7 | −0.32 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2018-03-10 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 3.10 | 0.88 | 1–13 | 5.4 | −2.21 | 5.7 | >99% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 3.32 | 1.34 | 8–9 | 12.8 | −1.98 | 6.8 | >99% |
| 2017-11-04 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.26 | 4.17 | 6–1 | 5.0 | +0.91 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.56 | 1.51 | 2–5 | 3.6 | −1.06 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.0 | 4.44 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.8 | 4.04 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.8 | 4.25 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.5 | 3.46 |
| NEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.9 | 4.27 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.1 | 4.48 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.0 | 3.69 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 4.90 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 22 | 68% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 4.04 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.0 | 2.89 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.6 | 3.99 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.0 | 3.48 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.6 | 3.34 |
| LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Nationals Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 3.58 |
| Harvard Coed Showcase 2 | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.1 | 3.64 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.7 | 3.99 |
| St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 4.33 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 3.68 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.6 | 3.79 |
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.0 | 5.32 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 42% | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.7 | 4.67 |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.0 | 3.16 |
| Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 3.96 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.3 | 4.38 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.6 | 3.72 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | 2.96 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.0 | 3.42 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 4.26 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 9 | 5.3 | 4.06 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.8 | 4.11 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.6 | 3.51 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.3 | 3.99 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 4.42 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.1 | 3.38 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 3.06 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 3.66 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.1 | 2.70 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 3.06 |
| NEISA Women Singles Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 3.16 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.3 | 3.76 |
| LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Nationals Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.6 | 2.55 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.1 | 3.56 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.5 | 2.83 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 12.3 | 2.31 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.6 | 3.41 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 3.21 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | 3.89 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.6 | 3.00 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.9 | 2.48 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 4.10 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.6 | 2.01 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.0 | 1.21 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 2.70 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.0 | 4.25 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 3.08 |
| LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.1 | 4.04 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
