Friis Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/24/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–2
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	11–3
3	Boston College	Eagles	8–6
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–6
5	Brown University	Bears	7–7
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5–9
7	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–6
8	Eckerd College	Tritons	5–7
9	Boston University	Terriers	4–8
10	University of Michigan	Wolverines	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 49 of 68 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.478 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.03 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	2	11.11 school +0.15	Nicholas Baird / Graceann Nicolosi 4.02 Malcolm Lamphere / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.61 11–2 Nicolas Hernandez / Kira Woods 3.43 5–1 Shawn Harvey / Katharina (Kb) Knapp 3.29 4–0 Shawn Harvey / Nicholas Marwell 3.19 3–0 Nicolas Hernandez / Shawn Harvey 3.36 1–1	74%	12–2 (86%)	+1.7
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	11.62 school +0.24, home +0.39	Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.66 Martim Anderson / Hallie Repeta 3.63 Conner Harding / Michael Mcbrien 3.68	83%	11–3 (79%)	−0.6
3	Boston College Eagles	3	10.48 school +0.14	Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.58 7–6 Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.11 6–6 Charles Sinks / Alice Bohan 3.67 6–6 Isabella Loosbrock / Peter Lynn 3.04 2–0 Charles Sinks / Emma Perry 3.50 1–0 Charles Sinks / Griffin Elliott 3.59 1–0 Wade Waddell / Emma Perry 3.40 1–0	58%	8–6 (57%)	−0.2
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	9.85 school +0.13	Erik Weis / Eloise Burn 2.72 Duncan Williford / Paige Clarke 3.26 8–7 Christopher Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.71 6–7 Christopher Williford / Sophia Diserio 3.66 3–0 Duncan Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.29 1–0	44%	9–7 (56%)	+2.0
5	Brown University Bears	9	9.42 school +0.17	Patrick Shanahan / Julia Kim 3.48 Sam Alexander / Emily Ito 2.91 5–5 Quinn Andersen / Julia Reynolds 2.85 5–5 Quinn Andersen / Emily Ito 2.88 2–2 Sam Alexander / Sawyer Balint 2.89 0–2 Sam Alexander / Gabriel Hannon 2.82 2–0	34%	7–7 (50%)	+2.3
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4	10.41 school +0.14	Cutter O'Connell / Julia Cho 3.16 5–5 Ty Ingram / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.79 5–5 Trevor Long / Marcus Abate 3.47 5–5 Trevor Long / John Ped 3.36 1–4 Ty Ingram / Sarah Caso 3.71 1–4 Ivan Shestopalov / Marcus Abate 2.86 1–4	58%	6–9 (40%)	−2.7
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	9.59 school +0.23	Matthew Kaplan / Louisa Lindgren 3.40 William Hawk / Marie Bergsund 3.05 6–4 Christian Filter / Emily Gonzalez 2.96 3–3 Matt Safford / Hannah Konkel 2.82 3–3 William Hawk / Emily Gonzalez 3.06 0–3 Christian Filter / Eric Hall 2.83 0–1	51%	6–7 (46%)	−0.6
8	Eckerd College Tritons	5	9.58 school +0.12	Karl Rasmus Sayre / Delphine Carroll 3.16 Andrew Schoene / Sabine Zinserling 3.37 Geoffrey Nelson / Kim Kusminsky 2.91	51%	5–7 (42%)	−1.1
9	Boston University Terriers	8	9.04 school −0.15	Robby Gearon / Hannah Davis 3.21 4–6 Ravi Parent / Grace Mooradian 3.36 4–6 Michael Sabourin / Carly Berry 2.55 0–6 Collin Alexander / Carly Berry 2.67 4–0 Robby Gearon / Charles Honke 3.27 0–2 Ravi Parent / Alex Moreno 3.42 0–2 Michael Sabourin / Josh Dochoda 2.51 0–2	40%	4–8 (33%)	−0.8
10	University of Michigan Wolverines	10	4.92 school −0.10	Colton Gerber / Sidney Thompson 1.85 Will Neubauer / Anna Wisotzkey 1.20 Connor Goulet / Claire Foley 1.88	1%	0–12 (0%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	11.11	11.99	12–2	10.3	+0.88	1.0	22%
5	Brown University	9.42	10.28	7–7	4.7	+0.87	1.5	12%
3	Dartmouth College	9.85	10.47	9–7	7.0	+0.62	0.9	20%
3	Boston College	10.48	10.43	8–6	8.2	−0.06	0.0	66%
7	Bowdoin College	9.59	9.34	6–7	6.6	−0.25	0.1	76%
2	Roger Williams University	11.62	11.33	11–3	11.6	−0.29	0.1	79%
9	Boston University	9.04	8.60	4–8	4.8	−0.43	0.2	82%
8	Eckerd College	9.58	9.03	5–7	6.1	−0.55	0.4	87%
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.41	9.47	6–9	8.7	−0.94	1.8	97%
10	University of Michigan	4.92	1.92	0–12	0.1	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.02	4.90	12–2	10.3	+0.88	1.0	22%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.58	3.53	8–6	8.2	−0.06	0.0	66%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	3.05	2.80	6–7	6.6	−0.25	0.1	76%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.63	3.35	11–3	11.6	−0.29	0.1	79%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.68	3.39	11–3	11.6	−0.29	0.1	79%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	3.36	2.92	4–8	4.8	−0.43	0.2	82%
Karl Rasmus Sayre	Eckerd College	3.16	2.61	5–7	6.1	−0.55	0.4	87%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	3.37	2.81	5–7	6.1	−0.55	0.4	87%
Geoffrey Nelson	Eckerd College	2.91	2.35	5–7	6.1	−0.55	0.4	87%
Ivan Shestopalov	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.86	2.19	1–4	1.6	−0.67	0.3	87%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.79	2.85	6–9	8.7	−0.94	1.8	97%
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.47	2.53	6–9	8.7	−0.94	1.8	97%
Will Neubauer	University of Michigan	1.20	-1.80	0–12	0.1	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Eckerd College	Dartmouth College	44%	upset
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	83%
1	3	Brown University	University of Michigan	99%
1	4	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	88%
1	5	Yale University	Boston College	67%
1	6	Eckerd College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	27%	upset
1	7	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	99%
1	8	Roger Williams University	Boston University	93%
1	9	Boston College	Brown University	75%
1	10	Yale University	Bowdoin College	83%
1	11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Michigan	100%
1	12	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	88%
1	13	Boston College	Dartmouth College	67%
1	14	Bowdoin College	Boston University	63%
1	15	Brown University	Yale University	14%	upset
1	16	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	100%
1	17	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	49%	upset
1	18	Bowdoin College	Eckerd College	49%	upset
1	19	Brown University	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
1	20	Yale University	Boston University	87%
1	21	Boston College	Roger Williams University	25%	upset
1	22	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	99%
1	23	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	76%
1	24	Boston University	Eckerd College	38%	upset
1	25	Yale University	Dartmouth College	77%
1	26	Bowdoin College	Boston College	30%	upset
1	27	Roger Williams University	Brown University	90%
1	28	Boston University	University of Michigan	98%
1	29	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	33%	upset
1	30	Yale University	Eckerd College	82%
1	31	Brown University	Bowdoin College	44%	upset
1	32	Boston College	Boston University	82%
1	33	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	85%
1	34	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	99%
1	35	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
1	36	Brown University	Boston University	57%
1	37	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	57%
1	38	Boston College	Eckerd College	67%
1	39	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
1	40	Yale University	University of Michigan	100%
1	41	Dartmouth College	Boston University	68%
1	42	Brown University	Eckerd College	45%	upset
1	43	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	63%
1	44	Boston College	University of Michigan	99%
1	45	Roger Williams University	Yale University	62%
1	47	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	57%
2	46	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Dartmouth College	67%
4	63	Eckerd College	Bowdoin College	52%
4	64	Boston University	University of Michigan	98%
4	65	Bowdoin College	Boston University	63%
4	66	Eckerd College	University of Michigan	99%
4	67	Bowdoin College	University of Michigan	99%
4	68	Boston University	Eckerd College	38%	upset
6	48	Brown University	Boston College	25%	upset
6	49	Yale University	Dartmouth College	77%
6	50	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
6	51	Yale University	Boston College	67%
6	52	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	76%
6	53	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	15%	upset
6	54	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
6	55	Dartmouth College	Boston College	34%	upset
6	56	Roger Williams University	Brown University	90%
6	57	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	33%	upset
6	58	Yale University	Brown University	86%
6	59	Roger Williams University	Boston College	75%
6	60	Dartmouth College	Brown University	61%
6	61	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	49%	upset
6	62	Yale University	Roger Williams University	38%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Eagles	Green	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Tritons	Terriers	Wolverines
Yale University Bulldogs	7–2	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	7–2	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–5	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–3	W	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W
Boston University Terriers	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

	Team	Rec.	Green	Engineers
	Dartmouth College Big Green	0–1	✕	L
	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–0	W	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bears	Tritons	Terriers	Wolverines
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–1	✕	L	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–1	W	✕	L	W
Boston University Terriers	2–1	L	W	✕	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Eagles	Green	Bears	Engineers
Yale University Bulldogs	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	1–4	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–1	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–4	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Tritons	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
2	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
4	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
6	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
7	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
8	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
9	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
11	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
12	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
13	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
14	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
15	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
16	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
17	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
18	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
19	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
20	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
21	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
22	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
23	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
24	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
25	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
26	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
27	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
28	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
29	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
30	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
31	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
32	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
33	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
34	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
37	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
38	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
39	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
41	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
42	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
43	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
44	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
45	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
47	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
46	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
63	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
64	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
65	Polar Bears	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
66	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
67	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
68	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
48	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
49	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
50	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
52	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
53	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6 DNF
54	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
55	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
56	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
57	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
59	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
60	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
61	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
62	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6 DNF

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19 Nicolas Hernandez '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Kira Woods '19 Shawn Harvey '22 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 Nicholas Marwell '21
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18	Michael Mcbrien '18 Jennifer Agell '19 Hallie Repeta '19
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Isabella Loosbrock '19 Sophia Reineke '21 Wade Waddell '19	Emma Perry '19 Alice Bohan '18 Griffin Elliott '19 Peter Lynn '19 Tara Ferraris '19 Katharine Bowman '20
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Williford '19 Duncan Williford '18 Erik Weis '18	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Sophia Diserio '18 Paige Clarke '20 Eloise Burn '21
Brown University	Bears	Patrick Shanahan '19 Quinn Andersen '18 Sam Alexander '18	Julia Kim '18 Emily Ito '19 Julia Reynolds '22 Gabriel Hannon '20 Sawyer Balint '20
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Cutter O'Connell '18 Ivan Shestopalov '21 Trevor Long '19 Ty Ingram '18	Julia Cho '20 Marcus Abate '20 John Ped '21 Sameena Shaffeeullah '19 Sarah Caso '19
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20 Matthew Kaplan '19 William Hawk '18	Eric Hall '20 Emily Gonzalez '20 Hannah Konkel '20 Louisa Lindgren '19 Marie Bergsund '20
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Geoffrey Nelson '18 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19	Sabine Zinserling '20 Kim Kusminsky '19 Delphine Carroll '19
Boston University	Terriers	Collin Alexander '20 Michael Sabourin '20 Ravi Parent '18 Robby Gearon '19	Carly Berry '21 Josh Dochoda '20 Grace Mooradian '21 Alex Moreno '19 Hannah Davis '19 Charles Honke '20
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Colton Gerber '18 Connor Goulet '21 Will Neubauer '20	Sidney Thompson '18 Claire Foley '20 Anna Wisotzkey '20

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1016.8 hPa

Temperature

41°F

↑ 44°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 7.8 kn

Gusts to 14.2 kn

From N (354°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1016.8 hPa Rain0.02 in Snow0.06 in

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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