Massachusetts Institute of Technology '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 96.75 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.085 rating points from 224 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.39 (fleet 1.92) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–9 (10%) as crew 40–23 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | — | 18–12 |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | — | 22–11 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (73 matches) the record is 41–32 against 42.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | crew | 2.85 | 2.99 | 12–6 | 11.6 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 3.25 | 2.30 | 6–6 | 8.5 | −0.95 | 1.8 | 97% |
| 2018-03-24 | Friis Team Race | crew | 3.71 | 3.03 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.67 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2018-03-17 | Southern New England Team Race | crew | 3.19 | 2.68 | 13–5 | 14.4 | −0.50 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2018-03-04 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | crew | 3.09 | 4.25 | 8–2 | 5.8 | +1.15 | 1.7 | 13% |
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1–9 | 1.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Crew | TR | 19 | 68% | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 2.0 | — |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 4.2 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | B | 11 | 6.0 | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 4.7 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 4.6 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 3.2 | — |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 8.0 | — |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 7.2 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 1.8 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Crew | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 7.0 | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | A | 6 | 6.8 | — |
| Friis Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 9.8 | — |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 4.9 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 10.3 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 3.4 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 7.0 | — |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 7.1 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | B | 5 | 7.6 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 5.8 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 11.7 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 6.8 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 3.0 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.5 | -1.21 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 0.97 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.4 | 3.24 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.0 | 2.33 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.7 | 1.79 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 4 | 9.2 | 1.96 |
| Midweek Firefly Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 3.16 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.2 | 1.68 |
| NEISA Invitational at MIT | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.9 | 1.07 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Midweek Fly 10/22 | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | 1.29 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.8 | 1.40 |
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 1.81 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Sarah Caso |  Duxbury High School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
