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Midweek Firefly Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 13 13
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 5 17 17
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 20 20
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 24 24
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 30 30
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 30 30
7 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 32 32
8 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 33 33
9 Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 40 40
10 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 48 48
11 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 55 55
12 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 58 58
13 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 58 58
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 3 2 2 3 3 13 Charles Welsh '18
Danielle Stonely '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 5 6 5 1 4 1 17 Sarah Ziobro '19
Samuel Wright '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1 9 6 2 2 20 Sarah Caso '19
Jamila Smith-Dell '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 4 8 5 1 6 24 Alexander Tong '17 [1, 3-4]
Jackson Mccoy '19 [2, 5]
Jackson Mccoy '19 [1, 3-4]
Alexander Tong '17 [2, 5]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 5 6 4 10 5 30 Pierre Dupont '16 [1, 3, 5]
Pere Puig '19 [2, 4]
Pere Puig '19 [1, 3, 5]
Pierre Dupont '16 [2, 4]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 8 4 7 7 4 30 John Rolander '17
Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 9 1 3 5 DNS 32 Robby Gearon '19
Andrew Reed '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 2 7 9 8 7 33 Alex Moreno '19
Emily Walker '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 7 3 10 6 DNS 40 Emily Croteau '19
Hannah Davis '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 10 11 8 9 10 48 Alexander Peraire-Bueno '20
John Reyes '19
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 11 13 11 12 8 55 Sabrina Mcdonnell '18 [1-3]
Kahlil Oppenheimer '17 [4-5]
Kahlil Oppenheimer '17 [1-3]
Sabrina Mcdonnell '18 [4-5]
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 12 10 12 13 11 58 Kiley Burke '17
Mae Harrington '19
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 13 12 13 11 9 58 Laura Schlenker '17
Cassandra Layman '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons55555
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 12020202020
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 22121212121
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 32222222222
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 42323232323
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 52424242424
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges99999
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints44444
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 11010101010
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 21111111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 222222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 333333

Conditions — 04/13/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1028.3 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From NE (39°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1028.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.66 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →