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Midweek Fly Regatta #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 10 10
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 17 17
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 22 22
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 31 31
5 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 33 33
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 33 33
7 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 42 42
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 47 47
9 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 48 48
10 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 49 49
11 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 51 51
12 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 54 54
13 Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 63 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 3 1 1 3 2 10 Annie Hughes '19
Noa Yoder '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 6 2 4 2 3 17 Sarah Caso '19
Tiffany Xi '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 4 2 8 7 22 Tyler Paige '18 [1-5]
Pere Puig '19 [1-3]
Russell Shapiro '19 [4-5]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2 6 5 9 9 31 Sarah Caso '19
Tiffany Xi '19
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 4 5 3 11 10 33 Taylor Corey '17
Linlin Chen '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 5 3 6 7 12 33 Steven Honig '19 [1-3, 5]
Pere Puig '19 [4]
Russell Shapiro '19 [1-3]
Steven Honig '19 [4]
Pere Puig '19 [5]
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 8 7 7 12 8 42 Joshua Mandelbaum '17
Alison Siegmann '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 DNS DNS DNS 1 4 47 Eleanor Grams '18
Owen Beringer '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 DNS DNS DNS 5 1 48 Ravi Parent '18
Caroline Salas '18
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 7 8 8 13 13 49 Ana Balcells '16
Kerry Lydon '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 DNS DNS DNS 4 5 51 Evan Gregory '16
Claire Lockard '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 DNS DNS DNS 6 6 54 Reed Lorimer '18
Israel Alarcon '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 DNS DNS DNS 10 11 63 Emily Croteau '19
Hannah Davis '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 166666
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 299999
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 31111111111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 133333
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 244444
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 31616161616
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 12727272727
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 22828282828
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21414141414
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 11010101010
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 21212121212
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards1818181818

Conditions — 09/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1026.7 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover7% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1026.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.64 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →