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Midweek Fly 10/22

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 24 24
2 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 25 25
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 31 31
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 32 32
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 37 37
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 39 39
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 42 42
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 47 47
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 54 54
10 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 57 57
11 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 62 62
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 62 62
13 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 72 72
14 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 73 73
15 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 75 75
16 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 81 81
17 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 98 98
18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 102 102
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 12 1 2 1 5 3 24 Kurran Singh '19
John Hughes '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 3 8 4 2 4 4 25 Owen Beringer '19
Rachel Guard '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 5 7 1 7 6 BYE 31 Madeleine Whittier '19
Eleanor Grams '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 4 2 5 6 13 2 32 Christopher Keller '19
Taylor Hart '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 2 3 9 15 7 1 37 Robert Rose '20
Anne Wieland '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 1 4 3 4 16 11 39 Evan Gregory '16
Caitlin Cloonan '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 8 6 7 9 3 9 42 Nicholas Giacobbe '19
Anna Robling '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 6 15 6 13 2 5 47 Andrew Xia '17
Noa Yoder '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 10 5 10 5 14 10 54 Jeremy Kalas '16
Sarah Owen '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 15 9 16 10 1 6 57 Sarah Caso '19
Tiffany Xi '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 9 10 14 3 12 14 62 Simon Bertocci '16
Stefanie Anderson '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 11 14 11 11 8 7 62 John Duncan '19
Lucy Zwigard '18
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 7 11 8 12 17 17 72 John Zupkus '16
Mackenzie Davis '18
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 16 13 12 8 11 13 73 Anna Kennedy '17
Ana Balcells '16
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 13 16 15 14 9 8 75 Samuel Wright '18
Stefanie Anderson '18
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 14 12 13 17 10 15 81 Sarah Ertle '16
Tara Gupta '16
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 17 18 18 18 15 12 98 Kristina Schneider '16
Laura Schlenker '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 18 17 17 16 18 16 102 Jamila Smith-Dell '16
Marina Crowe '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons777777
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 1111111
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 2222222
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1333333
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2101010101010
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3121212121212
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4151515151515
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 1111111111111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 2161616161616
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 3171717171717
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 4181818181818
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 5191919191919
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2999999
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3131313131313
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 1888888
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 2141414141414
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards555555

Conditions — 10/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1029.1 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From ESE (107°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine4.3 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1029.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.30 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →