Tufts University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.67 (fleet 3.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 69–82 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 25–24 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 6 | 35–48 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (151 matches) the record is 69–82 against 74.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | NEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.29 | 3.11 | 3–5 | 3.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2019-03-30 | 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.15 | 3.74 | 6–8 | 4.3 | +0.58 | 0.7 | 23% |
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.24 | 2.82 | 3–6 | 3.7 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 3.24 | 2.62 | 9–2 | 9.8 | −0.61 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 2019-03-03 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.21 | 3.18 | 4–3 | 4.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2018-04-07 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.76 | 2.35 | 2–9 | 2.7 | −0.41 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.82 | 2.04 | 2–12 | 3.6 | −0.78 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 2.77 | 4–9 | 4.2 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2018-03-17 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 2.48 | 7–11 | 8.1 | −0.41 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 2.78 | 2.99 | 17–3 | 16.5 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2018-03-04 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.68 | 3.29 | 3–4 | 2.1 | +0.61 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 2017-11-04 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.71 | 2.24 | 3–4 | 3.6 | −0.46 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.51 | 1.30 | 6–6 | 8.6 | −1.21 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 6.3 | 3.83 |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| NEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | 3.60 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 5.08 |
| Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.4 | 3.64 |
| 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.4 | 3.46 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 3.69 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 1 | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.0 | 4.19 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.8 | 2.39 |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 85% | — |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.5 | 3.43 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.4 | 5.84 |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.5 | 3.33 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.6 | 3.42 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 9 | 6.2 | 3.81 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.4 | 2.85 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 2.98 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.5 | 4.86 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.2 | 3.26 |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 3.8 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 5.8 | 4.04 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.9 | 3.91 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.7 | 3.48 |
| Ice Breaker | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.2 | 1.79 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.9 | 1.24 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Stuart Walker | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.6 | 1.72 |
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.5 | 1.87 |
| Midweek Fly 10/22 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 2.46 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 7.3 | 2.88 |
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 2.74 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
