38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy

HostMIT
Date03/30/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/NC Firefly
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	16–6
2	Boston College	Eagles	15–7
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	15–7
4	Connecticut College	Camels	14–8
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	13–9
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	13–9
7	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–9
8	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–10
9	Brown University	Bears	15–7
10	Boston University	Terriers	12–9
11	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	12–10
12	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	10–12
13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8–14
14	University of Rhode Island	Rams	4–18
15	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	3–19
16	University of South Florida	Bulls	0–22

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,225 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 56 matches (48%) with a log-loss of 0.859 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.56 ± 0.32: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 0% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	6	10.21	Eli Burnes / Eric Hansen 3.46 6–4 Henry Burnes / Lena Episalla 3.61 6–4 Nicholas Karnovsky / Jessica Williams 3.19 6–4 Eli Burnes / Jonas Nelle 3.47 3–1 Henry Burnes / Jessica Williams 3.54 3–1 Nicholas Karnovsky / Eric Hansen 3.17 3–1	39%	9–5 (64%)	+3.6
2	Boston College Eagles	5	10.61 school +0.16	Wade Waddell / Tara Ferraris 3.88 7–3 Sophia Reineke / Declan Mcgranahan 3.40 7–3 Thomas Walden / Robert Hunter 3.10 4–2 Wade Waddell / Laura Ferraris 3.72 1–3 Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.52 1–3 Isabella Loosbrock / Declan Mcgranahan 3.10 1–3 Isabella Loosbrock / Robert Hunter 3.23 3–1	49%	8–6 (57%)	+1.1
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	2	10.95 school +0.26	Christopher Williford / Ryan Goldstein 3.85 Jack Mcgraw / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.42 Timothy Greenhouse / Paige Clarke 3.41 6–6 Timothy Greenhouse / Madeleine Sharp 3.15 2–0	59%	8–6 (57%)	−0.3
4	Connecticut College Camels	8	9.76 school +0.17	Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.66 Cj Mckenna / Katherine (Katie) Rodger 3.02 Thomas Whittemore / Paige Dunlevy 2.87	29%	7–7 (50%)	+2.9
5	Tufts University Jumbos	7	9.82 school +0.15	Cameron Holley / Ian Morgan 3.26 Christopher Keller / George Sidamon-Eristoff 3.15 Jack Bitney / Maria Brush 3.21 5–1 Jackson Mccoy / Sabina Van Mell 3.45 1–3 Charlie Hibben / Sabina Van Mell 3.08 0–4	31%	6–8 (43%)	+1.7
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3	10.87 school +0.18	Charles Miller / Aidan Morgan 3.72 Hector Guzman / Charles Carraway 3.78 Kyle Easton / Aaron Tsuchitori 3.10	58%	6–8 (43%)	−2.1
7	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.18 school +0.23	Nicholas Baird / Sonia Lingos-Utley 4.37 Nicolas Hernandez / Claudia Loiacono 3.67 Shawn Harvey / Graceann Nicolosi 3.90	85%	6–8 (43%)	−5.8
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	10.61 school +0.21	Conner Harding / Dane Pedersen 3.94 Daniel Petrovic / Riley Read 3.18 6–6 Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.26 6–4 Spencer Cartwright / Hallie Repeta 3.26 0–4 Daniel Petrovic / Emily Gildea 3.17 0–2	51%	6–8 (43%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Harvard University	10.21	11.38	9–5	5.4	+1.17	3.0	4%
4	Connecticut College	9.76	10.73	7–7	4.1	+0.97	2.1	7%
5	Tufts University	9.82	10.41	6–8	4.3	+0.58	0.7	23%
2	Boston College	10.61	10.96	8–6	6.9	+0.35	0.3	37%
3	Dartmouth College	10.95	10.86	8–6	8.3	−0.09	0.0	68%
8	Roger Williams University	10.61	10.26	6–8	7.1	−0.35	0.3	82%
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.87	10.18	6–8	8.1	−0.68	1.1	93%
7	Yale University	12.18	10.10	6–8	11.8	−2.08	9.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Eli Burnes	Harvard University	3.46	4.63	9–5	5.4	+1.17	3.0	4%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	2.87	3.85	7–7	4.1	+0.97	2.1	7%
Christopher Keller	Tufts University	3.15	3.74	6–8	4.3	+0.58	0.7	23%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.88	4.23	8–6	6.9	+0.35	0.3	37%
Timothy Greenhouse	Dartmouth College	3.41	3.33	8–6	8.3	−0.09	0.0	68%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.94	3.59	6–8	7.1	−0.35	0.3	82%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.26	2.91	6–8	7.1	−0.35	0.3	82%
Isabella Loosbrock	Boston College	3.10	2.71	4–4	4.7	−0.39	0.2	82%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.72	3.03	6–8	8.1	−0.68	1.1	93%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.37	2.29	6–8	11.8	−2.08	9.6	>99%
Charlie Hibben	Tufts University	3.08	0.08	0–4	1.0	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
	1	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	47%	upset
	2	Connecticut College	Boston College	31%	upset
	3	Yale University	Roger Williams University	83%
	7	Harvard University	Tufts University	55%
	8	Connecticut College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	25%	upset
	9	Dartmouth College	Yale University	23%	upset
	13	Tufts University	Boston College	37%	upset
	14	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	59%
	15	Connecticut College	Yale University	8%	upset
	19	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	26%	upset
	20	Dartmouth College	Roger Williams University	59%
	21	Boston College	Harvard University	61%
	25	Tufts University	Yale University	8%	upset
	26	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	70%
	27	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	43%	upset
	31	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	31%	upset
	32	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	72%
	33	Boston College	Yale University	17%	upset
	37	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	77%
	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Harvard University	67%
	39	Boston College	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
	43	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	79%
	44	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Yale University	21%	upset
	45	Harvard University	Connecticut College	62%
	49	Boston College	Dartmouth College	43%	upset
	50	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	56%
	51	Tufts University	Connecticut College	51%
	55	Yale University	Harvard University	87%
1	57	Harvard University	Boston College	39%	upset
1	59	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Yale University	21%	upset
1	65	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston College	58%
1	67	Harvard University	Yale University	13%	upset
1	68	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	79%
1	73	Yale University	Boston College	83%
1	81	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	59%
1	89	Yale University	Roger Williams University	83%
1	95	Boston College	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
1	100	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	78%
1	101	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	57%
1	106	Connecticut College	Tufts University	49%	upset
1	107	Harvard University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	32%	upset
1	114	Boston College	Tufts University	64%
1	115	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	46%	upset
1	121	Harvard University	Connecticut College	62%
1	122	Boston College	Dartmouth College	43%	upset
1	129	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	30%	upset
1	139	Connecticut College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	24%	upset
1	143	Tufts University	Yale University	8%	upset
1	151	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	72%
1	158	Yale University	Dartmouth College	76%
1	159	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	30%	upset
1	161	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	25%	upset
1	165	Yale University	Connecticut College	92%
1	170	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
1	173	Connecticut College	Boston College	30%	upset
1	174	Harvard University	Tufts University	55%

Round 0

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Eagles	Green	Camels	Jumbos	Statesmen	Bulldogs	Hawks	Bears	Terriers	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Rams	Aggies	Bulls
Harvard University Crimson	3–4	✕	L	W	W	W	L	L	L	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Boston College Eagles	5–2	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Connecticut College Camels	3–4	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	L	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Tufts University Jumbos	4–3	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	L	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–4	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Yale University Bulldogs	2–5	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	W	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Brown University Bears	7–0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–3	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–3	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–3	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–5	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	2–5	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Eagles	Green	Camels	Jumbos	Statesmen	Bulldogs	Hawks	Bears	Terriers	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Rams	Aggies	Bulls
Harvard University Crimson	13–2	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	10–5	L	✕	W	L	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	10–5	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	11–4	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	9–6	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	10–5	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	11–4	L	W	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	9–6	W	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	8–7	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	9–6	L	L	L	L	W	W	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–9	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–11	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of South Florida Bulls	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
2	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
3	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
4	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
5	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
6	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
7	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
8	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
9	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
10	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
11	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6 DNF
12	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
14	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
15	Camels	1-2-5 DSQ	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6 DSQ
16	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
17	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
18	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
19	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
20	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
21	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
22	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
23	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
24	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6 DNF
25	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
26	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
27	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
28	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
29	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
30	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
31	Crimson	1-2-4 DSQ	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
32	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
33	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
34	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
35	Aggies	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
37	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Camels	1-4-6
38	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
39	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
40	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
41	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
42	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
43	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
44	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
45	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
47	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
48	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
49	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
50	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
51	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
52	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
53	Aggies	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
54	Polar Bears	2-3-5	def.	Bulls	1-4-6
55	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
56	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
57	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
58	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
59	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
60	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
61	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
62	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
63	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
64	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
65	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
66	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
67	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
68	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
69	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
70	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
71	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
72	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
73	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
74	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
75	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
76	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
77	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
78	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
79	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
80	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
81	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
82	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
83	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
84	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
85	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
86	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
87	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
88	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
89	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
90	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
91	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
92	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
93	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
94	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
95	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
96	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
97	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
98	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
99	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
100	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
101	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
102	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
103	Bears	2-3-6	def.	Eagles	1-4-5 DSQ
104	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
105	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
106	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
107	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
108	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
109	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
110	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
111	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
112	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
113	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
114	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
115	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
116	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
117	Aggies	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
118	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
119	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
120	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
121	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
122	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
123	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
124	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
125	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
126	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
127	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
128	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
129	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
130	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
131	Terriers	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
132	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
133	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
134	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
135	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
136	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
137	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
138	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
139	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
140	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
141	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
142	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
143	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
144	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
145	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
146	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
147	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
148	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
149	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
150	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
151	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
152	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
153	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
154	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6 DNF
155	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
156	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
157	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
158	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
159	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
160	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
161	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
162	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
163	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
164	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
165	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
166	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Aggies	2-5-6
167	Jumbos	3-4-6	def.	Bears	1-2-5 DSQ
168	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
169	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
170	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
171	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
172	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
173	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
174	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
175	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
176	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Eli Burnes '22 Henry Burnes '22 Nicholas Karnovsky '19	Jonas Nelle '22 Eric Hansen '23 Jessica Williams '20 Lena Episalla '19
Boston College	Eagles	Isabella Loosbrock '19 Sophia Reineke '21 Thomas Walden '20 Wade Waddell '19	Robert Hunter '22 Declan Mcgranahan '22 Tara Ferraris '19 Laura Ferraris '22
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Williford '19 Jack Mcgraw '20 Timothy Greenhouse '21	Ryan Goldstein '22 Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Madeleine Sharp '22 Paige Clarke '20
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Cj Mckenna '23 Thomas Whittemore '23	Cecilia Moreira '20 Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 Paige Dunlevy '20
Tufts University	Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 Charlie Hibben '22 Christopher Keller '19 Jack Bitney '19 Jackson Mccoy '19	Ian Morgan '19 Sabina Van Mell '19 George Sidamon-Eristoff '22 Maria Brush '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Hector Guzman '20 Kyle Easton '20	Aidan Morgan '21 Charles Carraway '22 Aaron Tsuchitori '22
Yale University	Bulldogs	Nicholas Baird '19 Nicolas Hernandez '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Claudia Loiacono '21 Graceann Nicolosi '20
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Daniel Petrovic '19 Spencer Cartwright '22	Dane Pedersen '19 Riley Read '22 Emily Gildea '21 Hallie Repeta '19 Rachel Holick '22

Conditions — 03/30/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.5 kn

avg · max 13.7 kn

Gusts to 23.1 kn

From ESE (104°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine7.7 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1019.0 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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