Roger Williams University '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 32.04 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.091 rating points from 124 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.50 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 9 | Fall 2014 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.27 (fleet 3.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–8 (43%) as crew 71–62 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | — | 9–12 |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 6–8 | 4–1 |
| Fall 2017 | 3 | — | 9–7 |
| Spring 2017 | 6 | — | 42–33 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 7–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (143 matches) the record is 74–69 against 66.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.4). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 30 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-30 | 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | crew | 3.94 | 3.59 | 6–8 | 7.1 | −0.35 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | crew | 3.94 | 2.50 | 2–3 | 3.0 | −1.44 | 1.0 | 97% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.61 | 1.93 | 6–8 | 7.6 | −0.67 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | crew | 2.38 | 4.46 | 4–1 | 2.2 | +2.08 | 2.4 | 10% |
| 2017-11-04 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 2.59 | 1.50 | 1–4 | 1.7 | −1.09 | 0.5 | 95% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | crew | 2.90 | 5.90 | 6–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | crew | 2.94 | 2.06 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −0.88 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | crew | 2.94 | 3.43 | 13–4 | 11.6 | +0.48 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 2.75 | 4.67 | 18–3 | 11.8 | +1.93 | 7.8 | <1% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | crew | 2.57 | 4.21 | 5–6 | 2.2 | +1.64 | 3.7 | 2% |
| 2017-03-11 | St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | crew | 2.60 | -0.40 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.3 | >99% |
| 2017-03-04 | GW Team Race | crew | 2.35 | 2.77 | 4–11 | 3.0 | +0.42 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2016-03-26 | MAISA/SAISA | crew | 2.58 | 1.67 | 7–9 | 8.8 | −0.91 | 1.2 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B | 13 | 9.5 | — |
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Crew | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Graham Hall | Crew | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Crew | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.8 | 2.41 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.5 | 4.34 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.0 | 3.15 |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 9.7 | — |
| Fiske-Harriman-Sleigh Trophy Coed Showcase | Crew | A | 7 | 7.7 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.4 | 2.85 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 10 | 8.3 | 2.86 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Crew | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.6 | 2.83 |
| 43rd Henry H.Anderson Jr. Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 6.7 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Dane Pedersen |  Old Dominion University |
'19 |
| ISSA | Dane Pedersen |  Chanhassen High School |
'15 |
| ISSA | Dane Pedersen |  Benilde St Margarets |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
