Graham Hall

HostNavy
Date03/16/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–1
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	12–3
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	12–3
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	11–4
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	9–6
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	9–6
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	9–6
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	8–7
9	Fordham University	Rams	8–7
10	George Washington University	Colonials	7–8
11	Harvard University	Crimson	7–8
12	Cornell University	Big Red	5–10
13	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5–10
14	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	3–12
15	Christopher Newport University	Captains	1–14
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,533 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 96 of 122 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.408 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.03 ± 0.18: a typical event, more orderly than 39% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.00 school +0.23	Nicolas Hernandez / Claudia Loiacono 3.59 10–1 Nicholas Baird / Sonia Lingos-Utley 4.35 8–1 Shawn Harvey / Graceann Nicolosi 3.84 7–1 Nicholas Baird / Graceann Nicolosi 4.33 6–0 Shawn Harvey / Sam Tobin 3.75 6–0 Nicolas Hernandez / Catherine Webb 3.70 4–0 Shawn Harvey / Claudia Loiacono 3.72 1–0	87%	14–1 (93%)	+1.0
2	College of Charleston Cougars	3	11.31 school +0.45	Steven Leuck / Payton Alexander 3.37 10–3 Alie Toppa / Annabel Carrington 3.70 7–2 Augie Dale / Katherine Lounsbury 3.81 7–2 Alie Toppa / Carter Cameron 3.66 6–1 Augie Dale / Oliver Parsons 3.72 4–0 Steven Leuck / Annabel Carrington 3.40 3–0 Augie Dale / Annabel Carrington 3.78 2–1	76%	13–3 (81%)	+0.9
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	11.57 school +0.15	Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 4.07 7–3 William Logue / Caroline Teare 3.72 5–3 Andy Reiter / Haley Shea 3.85 4–3 Andy Reiter / Claire Mohun 3.75 3–1 Sean Segerblom / Caroline Teare 3.90 2–1 William Logue / Noah Kelleher 3.78 2–1 William Logue / Marley Mais 3.81 3–0 Andy Reiter / Jack Hogan 3.77 2–0 William Logue / Jack Reiter 3.80 1–0 Andy Reiter / Marley Mais 3.80 1–0 Andy Reiter / Caroline Teare 3.70 1–0 Andy Reiter / Jack Reiter 3.79 1–0 Sean Segerblom / Jack Hogan 3.97 1–0 Sean Segerblom / Marley Mais 4.01 1–0 Noah Kelleher / Caroline Teare 2.43 1–0 Noah Kelleher / Rebecca Fung 2.60 1–0	80%	12–4 (75%)	−0.8
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	10.87 school +0.32, home +0.37	Connor Bayless / Ana Mier 3.53 11–2 Maxwell Brill / Kimmie Leonard 3.17 9–3 Parker Loftus / Sally Johnson 3.44 9–2 Parker Loftus / Sean Linden 3.40 2–1 Jc Hermus / Sean Linden 3.35 2–0 Jc Hermus / Parker Loftus 3.34 0–1 Connor Bayless / Sean Linden 3.46 0–1 Maxwell Brill / Bartholomew Winn 3.32 0–1 Jc Hermus / Ana Mier 3.41 0–1	69%	11–4 (73%)	+0.6
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4	10.71 school +0.21	Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.87 5–3 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.68 4–4 Charles Miller / Maya Weber 3.67 4–2 Hector Guzman / Charles Carraway 3.77 3–3 Kyle Easton / Jake Vickers 3.21 2–3 Jake Vickers / Aidan Morgan 3–0 Kyle Easton / Aidan Morgan 3.25 1–2 Jake Vickers / Katherine Klempen 1–1 Charles Miller / Katherine Klempen 3.58 1–0 Hector Guzman / Jake Vickers 3.87 1–0 Charles Carraway / Aidan Morgan 1–0 Charles Carraway / Katherine Klempen 1–0	70%	9–6 (60%)	−1.5
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	7	10.40 school +0.20	Daniel Petrovic / Emily Gildea 3.09 Spencer Cartwright / Hallie Repeta 3.19 8–6 Conner Harding / Jennifer Agell 3.88 8–3 Conner Harding / Dane Pedersen 3.94 1–3 Spencer Cartwright / Dane Pedersen 3.25 1–0	61%	9–6 (60%)	−0.1
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	9	9.81 school +0.46	Lewis Cooper / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.16 5–5 Liam Mccarthy / Kaisey Mccallion 3.24 5–4 Liam Mccarthy / Kate Bjerregaard 3.57 4–2 Lewis Cooper / Thomas Walker 3.29 4–1 Joshua Paper / Kate Bjerregaard 2.83 2–3 Joshua Paper / Ashley Wagner 2.59 3–1 Joshua Paper / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 2.57 3–0 Leo Boucher / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.09 1–1 Leo Boucher / Kaisey Mccallion 3.02 0–1	52%	9–6 (60%)	+1.1
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	9.34	Dreugh Phillips / Breanna Schultz 3.11 Jack Elkin / Abigail Tutt 3.54 6–5 Bridget Groble / Gavin Burkhart 2.67 6–5 Jack Elkin / Gavin Burkhart 3.55 2–2 Bridget Groble / Myles Murphy 2.51 2–2	45%	8–7 (53%)	+1.2
9	Fordham University Rams	11	9.36 school +0.20	Brad Seferian / Cortney Rielly 3.15 5–6 Tucker Hersam / Declan Lombard 3.02 2–5 Matt Cappetta / Edward Harrison 3.09 3–3 Matt Cappetta / Annika Ekholm 2.96 2–3 Matt Cappetta / Declan Lombard 3.07 3–1 Brad Seferian / Edward Harrison 3.04 3–1 Tucker Hersam / Annika Ekholm 2.90 3–1 Roberto Stevens / Tucker Hersam 3.09 2–1 Roberto Stevens / Sam Johnsen 2.96 1–0	45%	8–7 (53%)	+1.3
10	George Washington University Colonials	8	9.89 school +0.09	Andrew Sheerin / Zachary Lehan 3.63 8–6 Matt Logue / Michael Houllahan 3.02 6–6 Derek Poon Tip / Clare Cassidy-Gardner 3.29 4–3 Derek Poon Tip / Emma Mendenhall 3.08 3–3 Derek Poon Tip / Michael Houllahan 3.06 1–2 Andrew Sheerin / Connor West 3.52 0–2 Wade Wagner / Clare Cassidy-Gardner 2.90 1–1 Matt Logue / Marshall Mccraw 3.14 0–1 Wade Wagner / Mercedes Mcphee 2.72 1–0	52%	8–8 (50%)	−0.4
11	Harvard University Crimson	6	10.36	Nicholas Karnovsky / Jessica Williams 3.20 6–6 Eli Burnes / Lena Episalla 3.52 5–4 Henry Burnes / Catherine Tang 3.63 5–4 Eli Burnes / Paul Kuechler 3.40 2–5 Henry Burnes / Jessica Williams 3.59 1–3 Nicholas Karnovsky / Owen Schafer 3.17 1–3 Henry Burnes / Lena Episalla 3.61 1–2	61%	7–9 (44%)	−2.8
12	Cornell University Big Red	13	8.40 school +0.13	Phillip Schofield / Louisa Bjerke 2.73 3–10 Alex Fowkes / Becca Jordan 2.04 5–7 Clark Uhl / Ethan Andersen 3.45 5–6 Clark Uhl / Ana Schonander 3.42 0–4 Phillip Schofield / Sajan Alagiri 2.75 2–0 Alex Fowkes / Patricia Corujo 2.07 0–2 Ethan Andersen / Becca Jordan 2.34 0–1	31%	5–10 (33%)	+0.4
13	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	12	9.08	Joseph Laforgia / Emelia Bartusiak 2.93 Porter Killian / Dana Hackett 2.94 3–6 Nicholas Floyd / Kelly Hanlon 3.19 3–6 Porter Killian / Meghan Perez 2.87 2–4 Nicholas Floyd / Dana Hackett 3.24 2–4	40%	5–10 (33%)	−1.0
14	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	15	6.10 school −0.08	William Sesack / Brian Buckley 1.56 3–7 John Lawless / Christian Neuman 2.50 2–7 Hunter Kahler / Kyle Gelderman 2.16 1–6 John Lawless / Skye Miller 2.50 1–5 Aidan Molesky / Brian Buckley 1.80 0–5 Aidan Molesky / Kyle Gelderman 1.92 2–2 Aidan Molesky / Christian Neuman 1.85 0–4	11%	3–12 (20%)	+1.4
15	Christopher Newport University Captains	14	6.53 school +0.08	Javier Gonzalez Rotge / Ian O'Connell 2.55 1–13 Vir Menon / Ethan Caldwell 2.39 1–6 Vir Menon / Henry Clune 2.46 0–4 Zachary Douglass / Henry Clune 0–4 Vir Menon / Anna Patterson 2.51 0–4 Bailey Hurst / Henry Clune 1.65 0–4 Bailey Hurst / Anna Patterson 1.65 1–2 Anna Patterson / Zachary Douglass 1.98 0–3 Zachary Douglass / Bailey Hurst 0–1 Anna Patterson / Ian O'Connell 2.03 0–1	13%	1–14 (7%)	−0.9
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	16	4.73 school −0.35	Kieran Cullen / Eddy Harris 0–11 Luke Welker / Rachel Mckenzie 0–11 Samuel Parsons / Rachel Beisswenger 0–9 Samuel Parsons / John Bibeau 0–6 Kieran Cullen / Rachel Beisswenger 0–4 Luke Welker / Eddy Harris 0–4	3%	0–15 (0%)	−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
14	SUNY Maritime College	6.10	7.52	3–12	1.6	+1.42	1.5	14%
1	Yale University	12.00	12.85	14–1	13.0	+0.85	0.6	37%
9	Fordham University	9.36	9.91	8–7	6.7	+0.55	0.5	30%
8	Old Dominion University	9.34	9.84	8–7	6.8	+0.50	0.4	31%
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.81	10.28	9–6	7.9	+0.47	0.4	34%
2	College of Charleston	11.31	11.76	13–3	12.1	+0.44	0.3	40%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	10.87	11.15	11–4	10.4	+0.28	0.1	48%
12	Cornell University	8.40	8.62	5–10	4.6	+0.22	0.1	52%
6	Roger Williams University	10.40	10.36	9–6	9.1	−0.04	0.0	65%
10	George Washington University	9.89	9.74	8–8	8.4	−0.15	0.0	71%
3	Georgetown University	11.57	11.19	12–4	12.9	−0.38	0.2	83%
13	University of Pennsylvania	9.08	8.58	5–10	6.0	−0.50	0.3	85%
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.71	10.11	9–6	10.5	−0.60	0.6	90%
11	Harvard University	10.36	9.28	7–9	9.8	−1.08	2.1	98%
15	Christopher Newport University	6.53	5.17	1–14	1.9	−1.36	0.8	96%
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	4.73	1.73	0–15	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Sesack	SUNY Maritime College	1.56	3.59	3–7	1.5	+2.03	2.4	8%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.50	3.92	3–12	1.6	+1.42	1.5	14%
Aidan Molesky	SUNY Maritime College	1.80	3.21	2–11	0.8	+1.40	1.3	16%
Roberto Stevens	Fordham University	3.09	4.27	3–1	2.5	+1.19	0.5	45%
Joshua Paper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.83	3.84	8–4	6.1	+1.02	1.4	15%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.35	5.20	14–1	13.0	+0.85	0.6	37%
Lewis Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.16	3.64	9–6	7.9	+0.47	0.4	34%
Alie Toppa	College of Charleston	3.70	4.14	13–3	12.1	+0.44	0.3	40%
Augie Dale	College of Charleston	3.81	4.25	13–3	12.1	+0.44	0.3	40%
Alex Fowkes	Cornell University	2.04	2.31	5–9	4.6	+0.27	0.1	50%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.45	3.67	5–10	4.6	+0.22	0.1	52%
Maxwell Brill	U. S. Naval Academy	3.17	3.38	9–4	8.5	+0.21	0.1	52%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.88	3.84	9–6	9.1	−0.04	0.0	65%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	3.19	3.14	9–6	9.1	−0.04	0.0	65%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.63	3.48	8–8	8.4	−0.15	0.0	71%
Bailey Hurst	Christopher Newport University	1.65	1.28	1–6	1.1	−0.37	0.0	90%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.85	3.48	12–4	12.9	−0.38	0.2	83%
Joseph Laforgia	University of Pennsylvania	2.93	2.44	5–10	6.0	−0.50	0.3	85%
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.72	3.18	11–4	12.1	−0.54	0.5	88%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.68	3.08	9–6	10.5	−0.60	0.6	90%
Eli Burnes	Harvard University	3.52	2.44	7–9	9.8	−1.08	2.1	98%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.35	2.04	2–2	2.8	−1.31	0.7	96%
Javier Gonzalez Rotge	Christopher Newport University	2.55	1.20	1–13	1.9	−1.36	0.8	96%
Vir Menon	Christopher Newport University	2.39	1.04	1–14	1.9	−1.36	0.8	96%
Samuel Parsons	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	0.34	-2.66	0–15	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%
Zachary Douglass	Christopher Newport University	0.88	-2.12	0–5	0.6	≤−3.00	1.1	>99%
Anna Patterson	Christopher Newport University	1.98	-1.02	0–4	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Harvard University	80%
1	2	Yale University	George Washington University	89%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Christopher Newport University	96%
1	4	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	94%
1	5	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	39%	upset
1	6	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	61%
1	7	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	34%	upset
1	8	Fordham University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	16%	upset
1	10	Yale University	Old Dominion University	94%
1	11	Harvard University	Christopher Newport University	99%
1	12	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	13	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	14%	upset
1	14	College of Charleston	Fordham University	86%
1	15	Cornell University	Roger Williams University	11%	upset
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	17	Georgetown University	Christopher Newport University	99%
1	18	Yale University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Harvard University	66%
1	20	College of Charleston	George Washington University	82%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	50%	upset
1	22	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	83%
1	23	Georgetown University	Cornell University	97%
1	24	Yale University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	25	University of Pennsylvania	Harvard University	23%	upset
1	26	Fordham University	George Washington University	39%	upset
1	27	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Christopher Newport University	97%
1	28	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	29	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11%	upset
1	30	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	31	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	80%
1	32	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
1	33	University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Newport University	88%
1	34	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	35	Harvard University	Cornell University	87%
1	36	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	77%
1	38	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	87%
1	39	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
1	40	Yale University	Fordham University	93%
1	41	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	92%
1	42	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	81%
1	43	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	49%	upset
1	44	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	33%	upset
1	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	65%
1	46	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	48%	upset
1	47	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
1	48	Yale University	College of Charleston	68%
1	49	Roger Williams University	Christopher Newport University	99%
1	50	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Harvard University	40%	upset
1	52	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	38%	upset
1	53	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	83%
1	54	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	55	Roger Williams University	University of Pennsylvania	78%
1	56	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	84%
1	57	Yale University	Harvard University	83%
1	58	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	100%
1	59	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
1	60	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	83%
1	61	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
1	62	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	74%
1	63	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	95%
1	64	College of Charleston	Christopher Newport University	100%
1	65	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
1	66	Georgetown University	George Washington University	85%
1	67	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	8%	upset
1	68	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	42%	upset
1	69	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	73%
1	70	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	90%
1	71	Roger Williams University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	72	Fordham University	Christopher Newport University	93%
1	73	Harvard University	George Washington University	59%
1	74	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	73%
1	75	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	9%	upset
1	76	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	61%
1	77	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	46%	upset
1	78	Christopher Newport University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	88%
1	79	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	57%
1	80	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	81	George Washington University	Cornell University	78%
1	82	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	74%
1	83	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	66%
1	84	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	85	Georgetown University	Fordham University	92%
1	86	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	72%
1	87	SUNY Maritime College	Christopher Newport University	48%	upset
1	88	Yale University	Cornell University	97%
1	89	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	58%
1	90	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	74%
1	91	Harvard University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	92	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	62%
1	93	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	87%
1	94	Yale University	Georgetown University	58%
1	95	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	96	Old Dominion University	Christopher Newport University	93%
1	97	Fordham University	Harvard University	25%	upset
1	98	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	93%
1	99	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	100	Yale University	Roger Williams University	85%
1	101	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	College of Charleston	32%	upset
1	102	George Washington University	Christopher Newport University	96%
1	103	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	72%
1	104	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	86%
1	105	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	106	Fordham University	Cornell University	73%
1	107	College of Charleston	Harvard University	72%
1	108	Roger Williams University	George Washington University	58%
1	109	Georgetown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	110	U. S. Naval Academy	Christopher Newport University	98%
1	111	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	112	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	53%
1	113	College of Charleston	Cornell University	94%
1	114	George Washington University	University of Pennsylvania	65%
1	115	Yale University	Christopher Newport University	100%
1	116	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	73%
1	117	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	29%	upset
1	118	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	119	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	22%	upset
1	120	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
2	121	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	39%	upset
10	122	George Washington University	Harvard University	40%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cougars	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Statesmen	Hawks	Seahawks	Monarchs	Rams	Colonials	Crimson	Red	Quakers	Privateers	Captains	Mariners
Yale University Bulldogs	14–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	12–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	12–3	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	11–4	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9–6	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	9–6	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	9–6	W	L	W	L	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	8–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	8–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	7–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–10	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

	Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hoyas
	College of Charleston Cougars	1–0	✕	W
	Georgetown University Hoyas	0–1	L	✕

Round 10

	Team	Rec.	Colonials	Crimson
	George Washington University Colonials	1–0	✕	W
	Harvard University Crimson	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
2	Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
3	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
4	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
5	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
6	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
7	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
8	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
9	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
10	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
11	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
12	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
13	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
14	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
15	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
16	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
17	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
19	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
20	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Colonials	1-4-6
21	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
22	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
23	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
24	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
25	Quakers	3-5-6 DNF	def.	Crimson	1-2-4 DSQ
26	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Colonials	1-4-6
27	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
28	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
29	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
30	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
31	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
33	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
34	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
35	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
36	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
37	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
38	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
39	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
41	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
42	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
43	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
44	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
45	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
46	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
47	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
49	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
50	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
51	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
52	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
53	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
54	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
55	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
56	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
57	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
58	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
59	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
60	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
61	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
62	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
63	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
64	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
65	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
66	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
67	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
68	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
69	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
70	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
71	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
72	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
73	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
74	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
75	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
76	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
77	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
78	Captains	1-3-6	def.	Mariners	2-4-5
79	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
80	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
81	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
82	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
83	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
84	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
85	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
86	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
87	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
88	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
89	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
90	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
91	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
92	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
93	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
94	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
95	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
96	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Captains	2-3-6
97	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
98	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
99	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
100	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
101	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
102	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
103	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
104	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
105	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
106	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
107	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
108	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
109	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
110	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
111	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
112	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
113	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
114	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
115	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
116	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
117	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
118	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
119	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
120	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
121	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
122	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Nicholas Baird '19 Nicolas Hernandez '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Catherine Webb '23 Claudia Loiacono '21 Sam Tobin '23
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alie Toppa '20 Augie Dale '19 Steven Leuck '20	Annabel Carrington '19 Carter Cameron '19 Katherine Lounsbury '20 Oliver Parsons '21 Payton Alexander '19
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andy Reiter '19 Noah Kelleher '19 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Claire Mohun '19 Haley Shea '19 Jack Hogan '22 Jack Reiter '22 Caroline Teare '21 Marley Mais '21 Rebecca Fung '19 Noah Kelleher '19
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Connor Bayless '21 Jc Hermus '22 Maxwell Brill '20 Parker Loftus '20	Ana Mier '19 Sean Linden '21 Parker Loftus '20 Kimmie Leonard '22 Bartholomew Winn '21 Sally Johnson '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Carraway '22 Charles Miller '19 Hector Guzman '20 Jake Vickers '22 Kyle Easton '20	Katherine Klempen '22 Aidan Morgan '21 Lindsey Kloc '19 Maya Weber '20 Charles Carraway '22 Jake Vickers '22
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Daniel Petrovic '19 Spencer Cartwright '22	Dane Pedersen '19 Jennifer Agell '19 Emily Gildea '21 Hallie Repeta '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Joshua Paper '20 Leo Boucher '22 Lewis Cooper '21 Liam Mccarthy '19	Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kate Bjerregaard '19 Ashley Wagner '20 Kaisey Mccallion '19 Thomas Walker '21
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Bridget Groble '22 Dreugh Phillips '21 Jack Elkin '19	Gavin Burkhart '20 Myles Murphy '22 Breanna Schultz '21 Abigail Tutt '21
Fordham University	Rams	Brad Seferian '19 Matt Cappetta '19 Roberto Stevens '19 Tucker Hersam '20	Cortney Rielly '20 Edward Harrison '22 Annika Ekholm '20 Declan Lombard '21 Tucker Hersam '20 Sam Johnsen '21
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Matt Logue '22 Wade Wagner '19	Zachary Lehan '20 Connor West '19 Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 Michael Houllahan '20 Emma Mendenhall '19 Marshall Mccraw '20 Mercedes Mcphee '19
Harvard University	Crimson	Eli Burnes '22 Henry Burnes '22 Nicholas Karnovsky '19	Paul Kuechler '22 Lena Episalla '19 Jessica Williams '20 Catherine Tang '19 Owen Schafer '21
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Fowkes '20 Clark Uhl '19 Ethan Andersen '20 Phillip Schofield '21	Becca Jordan '21 Patricia Corujo '21 Ethan Andersen '20 Ana Schonander '20 Louisa Bjerke '22 Sajan Alagiri '21
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Joseph Laforgia '21 Nicholas Floyd '19 Porter Killian '23	Emelia Bartusiak '21 Kelly Hanlon '21 Dana Hackett '20 Meghan Perez '22
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Aidan Molesky '20 Hunter Kahler '21 John Lawless '19 William Sesack '21	Kyle Gelderman '21 Christian Neuman '21 Brian Buckley '21 Skye Miller '19
Christopher Newport University	Captains	Anna Patterson '20 Bailey Hurst '20 Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Vir Menon '20 Zachary Douglass '21	Zachary Douglass '21 Ian O'Connell '20 Henry Clune '21 Anna Patterson '20 Ethan Caldwell '22 Bailey Hurst '20
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Kieran Cullen '21 Luke Welker '21 Samuel Parsons '21	Rachel Beisswenger '22 Eddy Harris '22 Rachel Mckenzie '22 John Bibeau '22

Conditions — 03/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 39% · Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.2 kn

avg · max 12.6 kn

Gusts to 28.4 kn

From WNW (299°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1019.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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