Georgetown University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.02 (fleet 2.79) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–20 (58%) as crew 5–2 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 18–13 | 5–2 |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 10–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (53 matches) the record is 31–22 against 28.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | crew | 4.00 | 4.11 | 3–1 | 2.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2019-03-23 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 2.44 | 6–4 | 6.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | crew | 3.78 | 1.71 | 2–1 | 2.8 | −2.07 | 1.3 | 99% |
| 2019-03-02 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.32 | 2.90 | 10–9 | 8.1 | +0.57 | 0.8 | 22% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.87 | 2.37 | 10–7 | 8.6 | +0.50 | 0.5 | 30% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 25 | 80% | — |
| Graham Hall | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Crew | A | 2 | 5.5 | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 53% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | C | 14 | 9.6 | -0.14 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 2.92 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.4 | 1.34 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 10.0 | — |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 2.76 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 2.74 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.8 | 1.01 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.2 | 0.43 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
