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Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 157
2 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 161
3 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 199
4 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 257
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 282
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 292
7 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 346
8 American University American University Eagles 479
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 A 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 4 7 1 4 35 Andy Reiter '19 [1-12]
Jack Marshall '18 [13-16]
Claire Mohun '19 [1-12]
Yusuf Mallick '19 [13-16]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 A 6 2 9 4 13 7 6 1 4 3 2 3 1 2 5 2 70 Colin Kennedy '17
Kelly Weigold '18
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 2 11 2 7 5 6 3 2 8 2 5 5 10 3 2 1 74 Alec Chicoine '18
Abigail Lockler '18
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 10 4 4 1 16 2 4 5 5 1 4 2 3 10 11 5 87 Lee Dumaliang '17
Victoria Ewing '19
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 A 3 7 13 6 3 12 11 7 6 6 7 6 7 4 3 8 109 Noah Kelleher '19
Hollis Dana '16
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 A 8 9 10 12 7 8 5 6 7 4 11 4 8 5 4 12 120 Marie Line '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Samuel Mandell '19 [5-6, 13-16]
Samuel Mandell '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Marie Line '19 [5-6, 13-16]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 B 9 6 8 3 2 11 8 4 2 7 9 8 14 11 7 13 122 Haddon Hughes '19 [1-12]
Lola Bushnell '18 [13-16]
Antonia Leggett '19 [1-12]
Hannah Hess '19 [13-16]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 B 4 5 BYE 9 8 13 10 8 13 12 3 9 11 1 6 9 129 Jay Spector '16
Gabriella Malek '17
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains A 13 12 3 5 4 9 12 9 3 11 13 13 2 9 9 3 130 Anders Hudson '17 [1-12]
Austin Powers '17 [13-16]
Matteo Murrelle '19 [1-12]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 7 3 5 8 6 5 2 11 9 9 6 DSQ 15 8 14 6 131 James Morgan '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9, 12, 15-16]
Spencer Nora '17 [3-4, 7-8, 10-11, 13-14]
Spencer Nora '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9, 12, 15-16]
James Morgan '18 [3-4, 7-8, 10-11, 13-14]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 B 5 13 6 10 12 4 13 10 10 8 10 7 5 6 8 10 137 Sarah Alexander '19 [1, 3-16]
Alexandra Fayer '19 [2]
Alexandra Fayer '19 [1, 3-16]
Sarah Alexander '19 [2]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 11 10 11 11 9 3 7 13 12 15 8 11 6 14 13 7 161 Tyler Fleig '19 [1-5, 11-12, 16]
Manuel Inserni Pagan '17 [6-10, 13-15]
Manuel Inserni Pagan '17 [1-5, 11-12, 16]
Tyler Fleig '19 [6-10, 13-15]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 B 12 8 7 13 11 10 9 14 11 10 12 14 9 12 10 11 173 Curtis Crooke '17 [1-12]
Tuckerman Jones '17 [13-16]
Kiara Boswick '16 [1-12]
Maggie Kelly '17 [13-16]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains B 14 16 14 14 10 14 14 12 14 14 15 10 12 13 15 15 216 Benjamin Kempton '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Edward Lane '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16]
Edward Lane '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Benjamin Kempton '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16]
American University American University Eagles B 16 14 16 15 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 15 13 15 12 14 238 Alexander Wade '18
Anna Ferrara '18
American University American University Eagles A 15 15 15 16 15 16 16 15 15 13 14 12 16 16 16 16 241 Audrey Milite '18
Stephen Anderson '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles5555555555555555
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains6666666666666666
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 13333333333333333
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 24444444444444444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 11111111111111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 22222222222222222
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen8888888888888888
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs7777777777777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles9999999999999999
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains10101010101010101010101010101010
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 111111111111111111111111111111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 212121212121212121212121212121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 113131313131313131313131313131313
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 214141414141414141414141414141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen16161616161616161616161616161616
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs15151515151515151515151515151515
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University Audrey Milite '18 Stephen Anderson '18
Eagles Alexander Wade '18 Anna Ferrara '18
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Anders Hudson '17 [1-12]
Austin Powers '17 [13-16]		 Matteo Murrelle '19 [1-12]
Captains Benjamin Kempton '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Edward Lane '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16]		 Edward Lane '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Benjamin Kempton '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12, 15-16]
George Washington University George Washington University Colin Kennedy '17 Kelly Weigold '18
Colonials 1 Jay Spector '16 Gabriella Malek '17
George Washington University George Washington University Marie Line '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Samuel Mandell '19 [5-6, 13-16]		 Samuel Mandell '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Marie Line '19 [5-6, 13-16]
Colonials 2 Sarah Alexander '19 [1, 3-16]
Alexandra Fayer '19 [2]		 Alexandra Fayer '19 [1, 3-16]
Sarah Alexander '19 [2]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Andy Reiter '19 [1-12]
Jack Marshall '18 [13-16]		 Claire Mohun '19 [1-12]
Yusuf Mallick '19 [13-16]
Hoyas 1 Haddon Hughes '19 [1-12]
Lola Bushnell '18 [13-16]		 Antonia Leggett '19 [1-12]
Hannah Hess '19 [13-16]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Noah Kelleher '19 Hollis Dana '16
Hoyas 2 Curtis Crooke '17 [1-12]
Tuckerman Jones '17 [13-16]		 Kiara Boswick '16 [1-12]
Maggie Kelly '17 [13-16]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Alec Chicoine '18 Abigail Lockler '18
Monarchs Lee Dumaliang '17 Victoria Ewing '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy James Morgan '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9, 12, 15-16]
Spencer Nora '17 [3-4, 7-8, 10-11, 13-14]		 Spencer Nora '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9, 12, 15-16]
James Morgan '18 [3-4, 7-8, 10-11, 13-14]
Midshipmen Tyler Fleig '19 [1-5, 11-12, 16]
Manuel Inserni Pagan '17 [6-10, 13-15]		 Manuel Inserni Pagan '17 [1-5, 11-12, 16]
Tyler Fleig '19 [6-10, 13-15]

Conditions — 04/23/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1012.1 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 26.6 kn
From N (353°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1012.1 hPa Rain0.07 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · NE 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Georgetown: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →