Georgetown University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.08 (fleet 1.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–11 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 4–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 4–11 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.21 | 1.22 | 4–11 | 4.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.7 | -2.76 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.9 | -3.75 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | -0.79 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.5 | -2.86 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
