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Arrigan Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 112
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 130
3 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 130
4 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 136
5 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 282
6 Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 291
7 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 294
8 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 322
9 Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 354
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 1 1 2 2 1 3 1 3 5 5 9 1 34 Daniel Delbello '17
Madison Oleson '17
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains A 7 3 10 6 5 7 2 5 3 2 1 4 55 Austin Powers '17 [1-12]
Nina Heatfield '17 [1-10]
Laura Kilgore '17 [11-12]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 12 4 1 1 10 2 3 1 1 10 4 6 55 Jack Marshall '18 [1-10]
Lola Bushnell '18 [11-12]
Hollis Dana '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Albert Kraus '17 [3-4, 7-9]
Peter Mackell '16 [11-12]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 9 2 11 5 3 4 4 8 6 1 3 2 58 James Morgan '18
Rosie Silverstein '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 5 8 4 4 6 10 10 7 2 6 5 5 72 Spencer Nora '17
Amelia Winn '18
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains B 3 BKD 7 8 8 5 6 6 4 8 2 12 75 Xander Van Beurden '18
Kaitlin Welker '17
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 6 6 6 3 11 1 9 4 8 4 12 8 78 Sam White '18 [1-10]
Riley Engelberger '18 [11-12]
Gabriella Marki '17 [1-10]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 8 7 8 7 2 8 7 2 12 3 8 9 81 Clay Broussard '18 [1-10]
Curtis Crooke '17 [11-12]
Kiara Boswick '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Emily Fung '17 [3-4, 7-9]
Carolyn Dahl '18 [11-12]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies A 10 5 5 10 9 9 8 9 9 13 6 3 96 Nicholas Price '17
Ashley Black '17
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth A 4 10 12 14 12 15 12 10 7 7 11 7 121 Sydney Seitz '17
Alexandra Soubasis '18
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals A 2 12 9 11 7 11 11 11 10 14 10 14 122 Sarah Seski '15
Samuel Mortin '16
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves B 16 17 18 17 4 6 5 13 11 11 7 13 138 Avi Mayerhoff '17 [1-4]
Vidar Minkovsky '18 [5-12]
Spencer Ochs '18 [1-4]
Avi Mayerhoff '17 [5-12]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves A 11 11 3 12 14 14 13 12 15 16 13 10 144 Brendan Brown-Mccue '16 [1-12]
Vidar Minkovsky '18 [1-4]
Spencer Ochs '18 [5-12]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers B 13 13 13 9 13 13 15 16 14 15 16 16 166 Audrey Meehan '18
Melanie Cotton '18
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth B 15 15 17 13 17 12 16 14 13 9 14 15 170 Amanda Nuse '17
Emma Stowell '18
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers A 17 16 15 16 16 17 17 15 16 17 15 11 188 Mary Morgan '15
Kerri Paliwoda '17
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies B 14 14 14 15 18 18 18 18 17 18 17 17 198 Benjamin Hayes '16 [1-4]
John Libcke '18 [5-6, 11-12]
Dillon Faust '17 [7-10]
No Show [1-4]
Dillon Faust '17 [5-6, 11-12]
John Libcke '18 [7-10]
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals B 18 18 16 18 15 16 14 17 18 12 DNS DNS 200 Iain Higgins '18
Samuel Mortin '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals111111111111
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains444444444444
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials333333333333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas222222222222
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth555555555555
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen888888888888
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers666666666666
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves777777777777
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals101010101010101010101010
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains131313131313131313131313
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials121212121212121212121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas111111111111111111111111
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth141414141414141414141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen171717171717171717171717
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers151515151515151515151515
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves161616161616161616161616
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies181818181818181818181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Sarah Seski '15 Samuel Mortin '16
Cardinals Iain Higgins '18 Samuel Mortin '16
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Austin Powers '17 [1-12] Nina Heatfield '17 [1-10]
Laura Kilgore '17 [11-12]
Captains Xander Van Beurden '18 Kaitlin Welker '17
George Washington University George Washington University Sam White '18 [1-10]
Riley Engelberger '18 [11-12]		 Gabriella Marki '17 [1-10]
Colonials Daniel Delbello '17 Madison Oleson '17
Georgetown University Georgetown University Jack Marshall '18 [1-10]
Lola Bushnell '18 [11-12]		 Hollis Dana '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Albert Kraus '17 [3-4, 7-9]
Peter Mackell '16 [11-12]
Hoyas Clay Broussard '18 [1-10]
Curtis Crooke '17 [11-12]		 Kiara Boswick '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Emily Fung '17 [3-4, 7-9]
Carolyn Dahl '18 [11-12]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Sydney Seitz '17 Alexandra Soubasis '18
Monmouth Amanda Nuse '17 Emma Stowell '18
Rutgers University Rutgers University Mary Morgan '15 Kerri Paliwoda '17
Rutgers Audrey Meehan '18 Melanie Cotton '18
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Brendan Brown-Mccue '16 [1-12] Vidar Minkovsky '18 [1-4]
Spencer Ochs '18 [5-12]
Seawolves Avi Mayerhoff '17 [1-4]
Vidar Minkovsky '18 [5-12]		 Spencer Ochs '18 [1-4]
Avi Mayerhoff '17 [5-12]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Spencer Nora '17 Amelia Winn '18
Midshipmen James Morgan '18 Rosie Silverstein '18
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Nicholas Price '17 Ashley Black '17
Hokies Benjamin Hayes '16 [1-4]
John Libcke '18 [5-6, 11-12]
Dillon Faust '17 [7-10]		 No Show [1-4]
Dillon Faust '17 [5-6, 11-12]
John Libcke '18 [7-10]

Conditions — 04/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1012.4 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From SW (223°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.4 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1012.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn · NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Georgetown: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →