U. S. Naval Academy '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (fleet 3.04) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 30–20 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 20–15 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 30–20 against 31.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.53 | 2.60 | 9–11 | 8.7 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2018-03-17 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 2.48 | 11–4 | 10.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2017-03-25 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 1.85 | 10–5 | 11.6 | −0.58 | 0.7 | 91% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
