St. Mary's Quad Team Race

HostSt. Mary's
Date02/24/2018
TypeScrimmage
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	8–1
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	7–2
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 1	5–4
4	Old Dominion University	Monarchs 1	5–4
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 2	3–6
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 1	2–7
7	Old Dominion University	Monarchs 2	2–7
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 2	0–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,338 team race matches sailed before 2018-02-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 72 matches (61%) with a log-loss of 0.912 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −2.27 ± 0.26: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 0% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	3	10.44	Andrew Person / Grace Hanrahan Jack Marshall / Carolyn Dahl 3.48 Andy Reiter / Claire Mohun 3.81	61%	13–7 (65%)	+0.8
2	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	1	12.02	William Logue / Caroline Teare 3.76 Campbell D'Eliscu / Meaghan Macrae 4.01 Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 4.15	86%	12–8 (60%)	−5.1
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	4	10.91	Peter Hogan / Kelly Milliken 3.67 Parker Loftus / Sarah Barkley 3.32 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.85	57%	10–10 (50%)	−1.4
4	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	5	9.96 school −0.15	Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.83 Jack Elkin / Gavin Burkhart 3.48 James Jacob / Emily Harrison 2.76	44%	13–11 (54%)	+2.4
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	2	11.10 school +0.52, home +0.40	Dane Byerly / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.52 Edmund Cooper / Kaisey Mccallion 3.31 Liam Mccarthy / Kira Allen 3.29	65%	10–10 (50%)	−3.0
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	6	9.41 school +0.52, home +0.40	Bradley Adam / Kate Bjerregaard 3.34 Lewis Cooper / Sophia Taczak 2.65 Joshua Paper / Laura Dennison	37%	9–11 (45%)	+1.6
8	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	7	5.72	Nicholas Gartner / Alyson Wade 2.52 James Morgan Tyler Fleig / Holly Koerwer 2.08	1%	5–15 (25%)	+4.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
8	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	5.72	9.28	5–15	0.2	+3.57	17.2	<1%
4	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	9.96	10.56	13–11	10.6	+0.59	1.1	16%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	9.41	9.94	9–11	7.4	+0.54	0.6	25%
1	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	10.44	10.65	13–7	12.2	+0.21	0.1	45%
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	10.91	10.57	10–10	11.4	−0.34	0.4	83%
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	11.10	10.25	10–10	13.0	−0.85	1.8	97%
2	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	12.02	10.36	12–8	17.1	−1.65	6.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
James Morgan	U. S. Naval Academy	0.66	4.22	5–15	0.2	+3.57	17.2	<1%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.83	4.43	13–11	10.6	+0.59	1.1	16%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.34	3.88	9–11	7.4	+0.54	0.6	25%
Lewis Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.65	3.19	9–11	7.4	+0.54	0.6	25%
Joshua Paper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.03	2.56	9–11	7.4	+0.54	0.6	25%
Andrew Person	Georgetown University	3.02	3.23	13–7	12.2	+0.21	0.1	45%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	3.48	3.69	13–7	12.2	+0.21	0.1	45%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.81	4.02	13–7	12.2	+0.21	0.1	45%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.85	3.51	10–10	11.4	−0.34	0.4	83%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.31	2.46	10–10	13.0	−0.85	1.8	97%
William Logue	Georgetown University	3.76	2.11	12–8	17.1	−1.65	6.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	73%
1	3	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	33%	upset
1	4	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	100%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	86%
1	6	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	61%
1	8	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	71%
1	9	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	38%	upset
1	10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	98%
1	11	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	24%	upset
1	13	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	99%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	55%
1	16	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	11%	upset
1	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	100%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	72%
1	20	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	94%
1	22	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	99%
1	23	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	75%
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	25%	upset
2	29	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	99%
2	30	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	62%
2	32	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	71%
2	33	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	61%
2	34	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	3%	upset
2	35	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	75%
2	37	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	74%
2	38	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	89%
2	40	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	45%	upset
2	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	7%	upset
2	43	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	28%	upset
2	44	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	100%
2	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	18%	upset
2	47	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	99%
2	48	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	24%	upset
2	50	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	100%
2	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	37%	upset
2	52	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	66%
3	57	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	62%
3	58	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	1%	upset
3	59	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	71%
3	61	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	62%
3	62	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	45%	upset
3	64	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	7%	upset
3	65	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	24%	upset
3	67	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	25%	upset
3	68	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	2%	upset
3	70	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	11%	upset
3	71	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	99%
3	72	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	20%	upset
3	74	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	100%
3	75	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	28%	upset
3	76	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	72%
3	77	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	100%
3	79	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	66%
3	80	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	39%	upset
4	86	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	98%
4	87	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	8%	upset
4	88	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	61%
4	89	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	99%
4	91	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	28%	upset
4	92	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	71%
4	93	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	0%	upset
4	94	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	55%
4	96	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	38%	upset
4	97	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	75%
4	98	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	2%	upset
4	99	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	76%
4	101	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	79%
4	102	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	89%
4	104	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	66%
4	105	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	41%	upset
4	107	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	71%
4	108	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	99%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	2
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	11–3	✕	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	11–3	✕	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	4–10	W	W	✕	L	L	L	L	✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	8–6	L	L	W	✕	L	L	✕	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	5–9	L	L	W	W	✕	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	5–9	L	L	W	W	✕	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	8–6	L	L	W	✕	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	4–10	W	W	✕	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	2
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	10–4	✕	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	10–4	✕	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	5–9	L	L	✕	L	L	L	L	✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	6–8	L	L	W	✕	L	L	✕	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	7–7	W	W	W	W	✕	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	7–7	W	W	W	W	✕	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	6–8	L	L	W	✕	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	5–9	L	L	✕	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	2
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	7–7	✕	✕	W	L	L	L	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	7–7	✕	✕	W	L	L	L	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	7–7	L	L	✕	L	L	L	L	✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	7–7	W	W	W	✕	L	L	✕	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	7–7	W	W	W	W	✕	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	7–7	W	W	W	W	✕	✕	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	7–7	W	W	W	✕	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	7–7	L	L	✕	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	2
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	7–7	✕	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	7–7	✕	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	7–7	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	✕
Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	7–7	L	L	L	✕	L	L	✕	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	7–7	L	L	L	W	✕	✕	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	7–7	L	L	L	W	✕	✕	W	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	7–7	L	L	L	✕	L	L	✕	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	7–7	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs 1	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks 1	4-5-6
2	Monarchs 2	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen 1	1-5-6
3	Hoyas 2	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks 2	3-4-6
4	Hoyas 1	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen 2	4-5-6
5	Midshipmen 1	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks 1	4-5-6
6	Hoyas 2	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs 1	3-4-6
7	Monarchs 2	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen 2	3-4-6
8	Hoyas 1	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks 2	4-5-6
9	Hoyas 2	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen 1	4-5-6
10	Seahawks 1	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen 2	3-5-6
11	Monarchs 1	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks 2	3-4-5
12	Hoyas 1	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs 2	4-5-6
13	Hoyas 2	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen 2	3-4-5
14	Seahawks 2	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen 1	3-4-5
15	Monarchs 2	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks 1	3-4-5
16	Monarchs 1	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas 1	4-5-6
17	Seahawks 2	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen 2	3-4-6
18	Hoyas 2	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs 2	3-4-6
19	Midshipmen 1	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs 1	3-5-6
20	Hoyas 1	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks 1	3-4-6
21	Seahawks 2	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs 2	1-5-6
22	Monarchs 1	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen 2	4-5-6
23	Hoyas 2	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks 1	3-5-6
24	Midshipmen 1	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas 1	2-3-6
25	Monarchs 2		def.	Monarchs 1
26	Seahawks 2		def.	Seahawks 1
27	Midshipmen 2		def.	Midshipmen 1
28	Hoyas 2		def.	Hoyas 1
29	Monarchs 1	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen 2	3-4-6
30	Midshipmen 1	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas 2	1-5-6
31	Seahawks 1	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs 2	3-4-6
32	Hoyas 1	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks 2	4-5-6
33	Hoyas 2	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs 1	3-4-6
34	Midshipmen 2	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks 1	3-4-5
35	Hoyas 1	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen 1	1-5-6
36	Monarchs 2	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks 2	3-4-6
37	Hoyas 2	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks 1	3-4-6
38	Hoyas 1	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs 1	4-5-6
39	Midshipmen 2	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs 2	1-5-6
40	Midshipmen 1	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks 2	3-4-6
41	Seahawks 1		def.	Hoyas 1
42	Hoyas 2		def.	Monarchs 2
43	Monarchs 1		def.	Midshipmen 1
44	Seahawks 2		def.	Midshipmen 2
45	Hoyas 1		def.	Monarchs 2
46	Seahawks 1		def.	Midshipmen 1
47	Hoyas 2		def.	Midshipmen 2
48	Monarchs 1		def.	Seahawks 2
49	Monarchs 2		def.	Midshipmen 1
50	Hoyas 1		def.	Midshipmen 2
51	Seahawks 1		def.	Monarchs 1
52	Seahawks 2		def.	Hoyas 2
53	Midshipmen 1		def.	Midshipmen 2
54	Monarchs 2		def.	Monarchs 1
55	Hoyas 1		def.	Hoyas 2
56	Seahawks 1		def.	Seahawks 2
57	Midshipmen 1		def.	Hoyas 2
58	Midshipmen 2		def.	Monarchs 1
59	Hoyas 1		def.	Seahawks 2
60	Monarchs 2		def.	Seahawks 1
61	Hoyas 2		def.	Monarchs 1
62	Midshipmen 1		def.	Seahawks 2
63	Midshipmen 2		def.	Monarchs 2
64	Seahawks 1		def.	Hoyas 1
65	Monarchs 1		def.	Seahawks 2
66	Hoyas 2		def.	Monarchs 2
67	Midshipmen 1		def.	Hoyas 1
68	Midshipmen 2		def.	Seahawks 1
69	Seahawks 2		def.	Monarchs 2
70	Monarchs 1		def.	Hoyas 1
71	Hoyas 2		def.	Midshipmen 2
72	Seahawks 1		def.	Midshipmen 1
73	Monarchs 2		def.	Hoyas 1
74	Seahawks 2		def.	Midshipmen 2
75	Monarchs 1		def.	Midshipmen 1
76	Hoyas 2		def.	Seahawks 1
77	Hoyas 1		def.	Midshipmen 2
78	Monarchs 2		def.	Midshipmen 1
79	Seahawks 2		def.	Hoyas 2
80	Seahawks 1		def.	Monarchs 1
81	Midshipmen 2		def.	Midshipmen 1
82	Hoyas 1		def.	Hoyas 2
83	Monarchs 2		def.	Monarchs 1
84	Seahawks 2		def.	Seahawks 1
85	Monarchs 2		def.	Seahawks 2
86	Monarchs 1		def.	Midshipmen 2
87	Seahawks 1		def.	Hoyas 1
88	Midshipmen 1		def.	Hoyas 2
89	Seahawks 2		def.	Midshipmen 2
90	Monarchs 2		def.	Hoyas 1
91	Monarchs 1		def.	Midshipmen 1
92	Hoyas 2		def.	Seahawks 1
93	Midshipmen 2		def.	Hoyas 1
94	Seahawks 2		def.	Midshipmen 1
95	Monarchs 2		def.	Seahawks 1
96	Monarchs 1		def.	Hoyas 2
97	Hoyas 1		def.	Midshipmen 1
98	Midshipmen 2		def.	Seahawks 1
99	Seahawks 2		def.	Monarchs 1
100	Hoyas 2		def.	Monarchs 2
101	Midshipmen 1		def.	Seahawks 1
102	Hoyas 1		def.	Monarchs 1
103	Midshipmen 2		def.	Monarchs 2
104	Seahawks 2		def.	Hoyas 2
105	Seahawks 1		def.	Monarchs 1
106	Midshipmen 1		def.	Monarchs 2
107	Hoyas 1		def.	Seahawks 2
108	Hoyas 2		def.	Midshipmen 2
109	Monarchs 1		def.	Monarchs 2
110	Seahawks 1		def.	Seahawks 2
111	Midshipmen 1		def.	Midshipmen 2
112	Hoyas 1		def.	Hoyas 2

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	Andrew Person '21 Andy Reiter '19 Jack Marshall '18	Grace Hanrahan '18 Claire Mohun '19 Carolyn Dahl '18
Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Meaghan Macrae '18 Rebecca Fung '19 Caroline Teare '21
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 1	Gary Prieto '18 Parker Loftus '20 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Sarah Barkley '19 Kelly Milliken '21
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 1	Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Gavin Burkhart '20 Emily Harrison '21 Carter Little '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 2	Dane Byerly '20 Edmund Cooper '17 Liam Mccarthy '19	Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19 Kira Allen '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 1	Bradley Adam '17 Joshua Paper '20 Lewis Cooper '21	Kate Bjerregaard '19 Laura Dennison '21 Sophia Taczak '21
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 2	James Morgan '20 Nicholas Gartner '20 Tyler Fleig '19	Alyson Wade '21 Holly Koerwer '21

Conditions — 02/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 94% · Pressure 1020.4 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 62°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.9 kn

avg · max 8.8 kn

Gusts to 17.3 kn

From SE (144°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine2.3 hrs Humidity94% Pressure1020.4 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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