Old Dominion University '18
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.24 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 50 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.04 (fleet 4.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 142–119 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 7 | 45–52 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 6 | 55–37 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 17–18 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 25–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 19 graded regattas (261 matches) the record is 142–119 against 128.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+13.1). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 29 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | skipper | 3.57 | 3.82 | 8–13 | 6.9 | +0.24 | 0.2 | 38% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.63 | 3.45 | 6–6 | 6.4 | −0.18 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.71 | 3.57 | 7–8 | 7.4 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.69 | 4.11 | 10–7 | 8.7 | +0.42 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 2018-03-03 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.71 | 1.71 | 1–4 | 2.8 | −2.01 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2018-02-24 | St. Mary's Quad Team Race | skipper | 3.83 | 4.43 | 13–11 | 10.6 | +0.59 | 1.1 | 16% |
| 2018-02-17 | ODU Quad | skipper | 3.84 | 0.84 | 0–3 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.78 | 4.17 | 8–7 | 7.2 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2017-04-08 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.73 | 5.07 | 10–5 | 5.8 | +1.34 | 4.0 | 2% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.70 | 4.18 | 13–4 | 11.6 | +0.48 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.57 | 5.50 | 18–3 | 11.8 | +1.93 | 7.8 | <1% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.50 | 4.17 | 6–9 | 4.5 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 24% |
| 2017-03-11 | St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | skipper | 3.53 | 0.53 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.3 | >99% |
| 2016-03-26 | MAISA/SAISA | skipper | 3.02 | 2.11 | 7–9 | 8.8 | −0.91 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2016-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 2.99 | 4–6 | 4.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 0.80 | 6–3 | 8.0 | −2.39 | 3.6 | >99% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.83 | 3.40 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 2015-03-28 | MAISA/SAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.80 | 3.51 | 9–5 | 7.1 | +0.72 | 1.0 | 19% |
| 2015-03-21 | C.J. Woollum Team Race | skipper | 2.24 | 2.74 | 10–5 | 8.9 | +0.50 | 0.4 | 35% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Quad Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| ODU Quad | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.1 | 4.79 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.9 | 4.37 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.2 | 4.20 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.1 | 4.11 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 4.17 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.6 | 4.41 |
| South Qualifier | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.5 | 4.00 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 4.27 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.5 | 3.19 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.2 | 4.16 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.9 | 3.44 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 3.50 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.7 | 4.22 |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.3 | 4.16 |
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.5 | 3.99 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.5 | 3.81 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.5 | 3.64 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.5 | 2.92 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.3 | 4.14 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 11.6 | 2.61 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.5 | 3.76 |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.0 | 2.54 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.5 | 3.21 |
| Henry Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 3.14 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 5.7 | 3.85 |
| C.J. Woollum Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | 2.15 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 15 | 15.5 | 1.64 |
| MAISA Laser Elimination Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.1 | 3.41 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.9 | 2.90 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.2 | 2.61 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
