MAISA/SAISA Team Race

HostHampton
Date03/28/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Eckerd College	Tritons	12–2
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	11–3
3	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	8–5
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	8–6
5	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–7
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	4–10
7	Hampton University	Pirates	3–10
8	Webb Institute	Clippers	2–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,801 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 56 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.607 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.50 ± 0.27: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 11% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Eckerd College Tritons	4	8.67 school −0.36	Jason D'Agostino / Ann Williamson 3.17 Timothy Siemers / Jessica Resnick 3.04 Andrew Schoene / Sarah Hanson 2.74	59%	12–2 (86%)	+3.7
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	3	8.61 school −0.15	Jack Gerli / Mary Kate Mezzetti 2.92 Jack Marshall / Jack Welty 2.94 Massimo Mazzolini / Brian Poirier 2.55 7–3 John Labossiere / Brian Poirier 4–0	59%	11–3 (79%)	+2.7
3	Old Dominion University Monarchs	5	8.27 school −0.35	Ethan Lounsbury / Katelyn Talley 2.84 Lee Dumaliang / Cady Johnson 2.92 Jeremy Herrin / Kaylie Gallagher 2.80	51%	9–5 (64%)	+1.9
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1	9.83 school +0.70	Patrick Tara / Kira Allen 2.83 Jonathan Lutz / Elizabeth Dennison Carolyn Smith / Julia Monro 3.02	83%	8–6 (57%)	−3.6
5	University of South Florida Bulls	2	8.89	Paul Perry / Sarah Smith 2.93 Michael Trebilcock / Lizette Arnold 2.39 Sean Cornell / Brendan Feeney 3.26	65%	7–7 (50%)	−2.1
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	8.26	Philip Youngberg / Sahara Graft 2.75 Charles Peck / Amelia Winn 2.46 Peter Hogan / Molly Hanson	50%	4–10 (29%)	−3.0
7	Hampton University Pirates	7	7.13 school −0.05	Veronica Maccari / Albert Berk Toledo 2.45 Maximilian Kuester / Joshua Williams Cristina Ortiz Vivas / Kitija Megne 0–8 Cristina Ortiz Vivas / Miles Braden 3–3	28%	3–11 (21%)	−1.0
8	Webb Institute Clippers	8	5.28 school +0.07	Casey Brown / Zachary Backas 1.87 James Morrissey / Ian Lawson 1.82 Sean Walker / Gokce Gomec 1.26	5%	2–12 (14%)	+1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Eckerd College	8.67	10.36	12–2	8.3	+1.69	4.1	2%
8	Webb Institute	5.28	6.52	2–12	0.7	+1.23	1.3	15%
2	Georgetown University	8.61	9.70	11–3	8.3	+1.09	2.0	9%
3	Old Dominion University	8.27	8.99	9–5	7.1	+0.72	1.0	19%
7	Hampton University	7.13	6.58	3–11	4.0	−0.55	0.4	86%
5	University of South Florida	8.89	8.12	7–7	9.1	−0.77	1.1	94%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	8.26	6.98	4–10	7.0	−1.28	2.6	99%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.83	8.36	8–6	11.6	−1.47	4.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
John Labossiere	Georgetown University	2.24	5.24	4–0	3.5	≥+3.00	0.8	54%
Jason D'Agostino	Eckerd College	3.17	4.86	12–2	8.3	+1.69	4.1	2%
Timothy Siemers	Eckerd College	3.04	4.73	12–2	8.3	+1.69	4.1	2%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	2.74	4.43	12–2	8.3	+1.69	4.1	2%
Casey Brown	Webb Institute	1.87	3.11	2–12	0.7	+1.23	1.3	15%
James Morrissey	Webb Institute	1.82	3.05	2–12	0.7	+1.23	1.3	15%
Jack Gerli	Georgetown University	2.92	4.02	11–3	8.3	+1.09	2.0	9%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	2.94	4.04	11–3	8.3	+1.09	2.0	9%
Massimo Mazzolini	Georgetown University	2.55	3.53	7–3	4.9	+0.98	1.5	14%
Lee Dumaliang	Old Dominion University	2.92	3.63	9–5	7.1	+0.72	1.0	19%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	2.80	3.51	9–5	7.1	+0.72	1.0	19%
Veronica Maccari	Hampton University	2.45	1.90	3–11	4.0	−0.55	0.4	86%
Maximilian Kuester	Hampton University	2.42	1.87	3–11	4.0	−0.55	0.4	86%
Cristina Ortiz Vivas	Hampton University	1.82	1.27	3–11	4.0	−0.55	0.4	86%
Paul Perry	University of South Florida	2.93	2.16	7–7	9.1	−0.77	1.1	94%
Michael Trebilcock	University of South Florida	2.39	1.63	7–7	9.1	−0.77	1.1	94%
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.26	2.50	7–7	9.1	−0.77	1.1	94%
Philip Youngberg	U. S. Naval Academy	2.75	1.47	4–10	7.0	−1.28	2.6	99%
Charles Peck	U. S. Naval Academy	2.46	1.18	4–10	7.0	−1.28	2.6	99%
Patrick Tara	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.83	1.36	8–6	11.6	−1.47	4.1	>99%
Carolyn Smith	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.02	1.56	8–6	11.6	−1.47	4.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
1	2	Eckerd College	Webb Institute	97%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hampton University	96%
1	4	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	42%	upset
1	5	Eckerd College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	25%	upset
1	6	Webb Institute	Hampton University	16%	upset
1	7	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	61%
1	8	Old Dominion University	Webb Institute	96%
1	9	Hampton University	University of South Florida	15%	upset
1	10	Eckerd College	U. S. Naval Academy	63%
1	11	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	43%	upset
1	12	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	73%
1	13	Eckerd College	Old Dominion University	60%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	Hampton University	78%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Webb Institute	99%
1	16	Eckerd College	Hampton University	84%
1	17	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	23%	upset
1	18	University of South Florida	Webb Institute	97%
1	19	Georgetown University	Hampton University	76%
1	20	U. S. Naval Academy	Webb Institute	95%
1	21	University of South Florida	Old Dominion University	64%
1	22	Georgetown University	Webb Institute	96%
1	23	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	45%	upset
1	24	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18%	upset
1	25	University of South Florida	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
1	26	Old Dominion University	Hampton University	75%
1	27	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	51%
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
2	29	University of South Florida	St. Mary's College of Maryland	28%	upset
2	30	Georgetown University	Hampton University	77%
2	31	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	51%
2	32	Eckerd College	Webb Institute	97%
2	33	Old Dominion University	Hampton University	73%
2	34	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	61%
2	35	University of South Florida	Webb Institute	97%
2	36	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	26%	upset
2	37	Eckerd College	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
2	38	Hampton University	University of South Florida	15%	upset
2	39	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Webb Institute	99%
2	40	Eckerd College	Old Dominion University	60%
2	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hampton University	93%
2	42	University of South Florida	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
2	43	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	63%
2	44	U. S. Naval Academy	Hampton University	74%
2	45	Old Dominion University	Webb Institute	95%
2	46	Eckerd College	Georgetown University	46%	upset
2	47	Webb Institute	U. S. Naval Academy	5%	upset
2	48	University of South Florida	Georgetown University	53%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	77%
2	50	Georgetown University	Webb Institute	96%
2	51	Eckerd College	Hampton University	79%
2	52	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	17%	upset
2	53	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	42%	upset
2	54	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
2	55	Hampton University	Webb Institute	88%
2	56	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	32%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Tritons	Hoyas	Monarchs	Seahawks	Bulls	Midshipmen	Pirates	Clippers
Eckerd College Tritons	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–4	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Hampton University Pirates	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Webb Institute Clippers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Tritons	Hoyas	Monarchs	Seahawks	Bulls	Midshipmen	Pirates	Clippers
Eckerd College Tritons	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	4–3	L	W	L	W	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L
Hampton University Pirates	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Webb Institute Clippers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
2	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
3	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Pirates	3-5-6
4	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
5	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
6	Clippers	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6
7	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
8	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
9	Pirates	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
10	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
11	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
12	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
13	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
14	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
15	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
16	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Pirates	2-4-6
17	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
18	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Pirates	3-4-5
20	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
21	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
22	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Clippers	2-4-6
23	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
24	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
25	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
26	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Pirates	2-4-6
27	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
29	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
30	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
31	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
32	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Clippers	3-4-6
33	Monarchs		def.	Pirates
34	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
35	Bulls		def.	Clippers
36	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
37	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
38	Pirates	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
39	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Clippers	3-4-5
40	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
41	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6
42	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
43	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
44	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6
45	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
46	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
47	Clippers	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
48	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
49	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Tritons	2-4-6
50	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Clippers	4-5-6
51	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6
52	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
53	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
54	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
55	Pirates	1-2-4	def.	Clippers	3-5-6
56	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Timothy Siemers '16	Sarah Hanson '16 Ann Williamson '15 Jessica Resnick '16
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Jack Gerli '17 Jack Marshall '18 John Labossiere '17 Massimo Mazzolini '17	Mary Kate Mezzetti '16 Jack Welty '16 Brian Poirier '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Ethan Lounsbury '17 Jeremy Herrin '18 Lee Dumaliang '17	Katelyn Talley '16 Kaylie Gallagher '16 Cady Johnson '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Carolyn Smith '17 Jonathan Lutz '17 Patrick Tara '17	Julia Monro '17 Elizabeth Dennison '17 Kira Allen '18
University of South Florida	Bulls	Michael Trebilcock '17 Paul Perry '15 Sean Cornell '18	Lizette Arnold '17 Sarah Smith '16 Brendan Feeney '18
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Charles Peck '15 Peter Hogan '18 Philip Youngberg '15	Amelia Winn '18 Molly Hanson '17 Sahara Graft '18
Hampton University	Pirates	Cristina Ortiz Vivas '18 Maximilian Kuester '18 Veronica Maccari '17	Kitija Megne '15 Miles Braden '17 Joshua Williams '16 Albert Berk Toledo '15
Webb Institute	Clippers	Casey Brown '16 James Morrissey '17 Sean Walker '18	Zachary Backas '16 Ian Lawson '17 Gokce Gomec '18

Conditions — 03/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

40°F

↑ 42°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.5 kn

avg · max 12.3 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From NW (313°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1016.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Hampton — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Hampton in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled fleet-race days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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