Georgetown University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.06 (fleet 2.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–38 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 7–3 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 19–16 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 2–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (73 matches) the record is 35–38 against 36.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-18 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 1.96 | 6–8 | 7.7 | −0.66 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2015-03-28 | MAISA/SAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.55 | 3.53 | 7–3 | 4.9 | +0.98 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.70 | -1.25 | 1–2 | 1.8 | −3.95 | 1.4 | >99% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.43 | 2.81 | 9–9 | 7.6 | +0.38 | 0.4 | 31% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.53 | 2.87 | 6–1 | 5.7 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 62% |
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 1.49 | 4–6 | 6.0 | −1.07 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.12 | 1.70 | 2–9 | 2.5 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 81% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.7 | 3.06 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 14 | 5.9 | 3.06 |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 17 | 88% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 2.02 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.7 | 2.44 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
