| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
University of Virginia | Wahoos | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,991 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.490 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.35: a typical event, more orderly than 45% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | University of Virginia | 7.05 | 8.13 | 3–7 | 1.4 | +1.07 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 1 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 10.21 | 10.95 | 9–1 | 8.2 | +0.74 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 2 | U. S. Naval Academy | 9.26 | 9.76 | 7–3 | 6.1 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 3 | Fordham University | 9.16 | 9.25 | 6–4 | 5.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 4 | Georgetown University | 9.21 | 8.14 | 4–6 | 6.0 | −1.07 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 6 | SUNY Maritime College | 7.62 | 6.32 | 1–9 | 2.4 | −1.30 | 1.2 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Midshipmen | Rams | Hoyas | Wahoos | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–2 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | W | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Virginia Wahoos | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Midshipmen | Rams | Hoyas | Wahoos | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 0–5 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | L |
| University of Virginia Wahoos | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wahoos | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wahoos | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Wahoos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Wahoos | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wahoos | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Wahoos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Privateers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 Louis Padnos '14 |
Jane Rew '14 Marnie Merrill '15 Julia Oak '14 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Charles Peck '15 Michael Madigan '17 Patrick Snow '17 |
Mary Robertson '17 Karen Vargas '16 Emma Ferris '15 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17 |
Connor Murphy '16 Madeleine Sims '16 Emma Huntress '16 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Aj Reiter '17 Jack Gerli '17 Massimo Mazzolini '17 |
Eliana Michaels '14 Genevieve Burgoyne '14 Elizabeth Mullarney '16 |
|
University of Virginia | Wahoos | Christopher Craven '16 Christopher Stessing '14 Samuel Patterson '16 |
Ellen Hubbard '14 Olivia Bicks '17 Eliza Schuett '17 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | Arthur Libby '17 Ben Wilkinson '17 Julia Paxton '14 |
Matthew Romanuski '16 Christopher Whalen '15 Andrew Haggerty '14 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
