Hobart and William Smith Colleges '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.73 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 17 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.58 (fleet 3.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 167–133 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 27–16 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 6 | 53–35 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 42–41 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 6 | 45–41 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 17 graded regattas (244 matches) the record is 137–107 against 136.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-09 | MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.35 | 1.88 | 3–11 | 6.5 | −1.48 | 3.6 | 99% |
| 2016-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.29 | 4.81 | 17–2 | 12.8 | +1.52 | 4.0 | 2% |
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.94 | 3.92 | 7–3 | 4.9 | +0.97 | 1.4 | 14% |
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.37 | 3.26 | 6–8 | 6.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.29 | 3.16 | 6–1 | 6.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.32 | 3.41 | 14–4 | 13.7 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.24 | 2.16 | 3–12 | 5.2 | −1.08 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 3.29 | 3.18 | 8–6 | 8.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2015-03-07 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.09 | 3.07 | 16–4 | 16.1 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.14 | 2.69 | 6–15 | 7.4 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.01 | 3.18 | 6–1 | 5.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.30 | 3.78 | 14–7 | 11.9 | +0.48 | 0.7 | 23% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 3.14 | 5–10 | 4.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.36 | 3.25 | 2–7 | 2.1 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.42 | 4.15 | 9–1 | 8.2 | +0.74 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.98 | 3.11 | 6–7 | 5.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.12 | 2.68 | 9–8 | 10.2 | −0.44 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 3.80 |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 3.58 |
| MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.4 | 3.94 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 90% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.1 | 3.15 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.1 | 3.75 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 18 | 9.9 | 2.62 |
| North Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 11 | 2.9 | 4.08 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.9 | 3.15 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 2.91 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.2 | 2.82 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.2 | 2.89 |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.7 | 2.46 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.2 | 2.71 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.2 | 3.90 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | D | 15 | 10.9 | 2.63 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 4.82 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.1 | 3.72 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.8 | 3.24 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.6 | 2.40 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 3.88 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.0 | 0.77 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | 2.83 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.1 | 2.86 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 10.9 | 3.26 |
| Carl Van Duyne Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 17 | 16.1 | 0.41 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.0 | 3.76 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 12 | 7.4 | 3.26 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 16.2 | 1.34 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 3.15 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.4 | 2.77 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.7 | 2.87 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.5 | 1.76 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
