Carl Van Duyne

HostNavy
Date10/12/2013
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	78
2	SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	82
3	Fordham University	Olin Paine '16	82
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	94
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Philip Youngberg '15	108
6	Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	121
7	George Washington University	Daniel Delbello '17	132
8	Old Dominion University	Nathan Fields '17	160
9	George Washington University	Colin Kennedy '17	167
10	Old Dominion University	Joseph David '16	193
11	SUNY Maritime College	Matthew Schoene '15	205
12	Old Dominion University	Daniel Lochner '15	205
13	Fordham University	Alecsander Tayler '17	206
14	U. S. Naval Academy	Markus Edegran '16	216
15	Cornell University	Matthew Schofield '17	236
16	Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	252
17	Fordham University	Will Holz '17	253
18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eddie Cox '16	292

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	1	7	8	1	3	8	5	5	1	1	OCS	1	4	5	2	2	1	4	78
SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	2	3	5	8	2	5	4	3	2	3	5	14	1	4	6	4	6	5	82
Fordham University	Olin Paine '16	4	15	6	2	5	2	3	8	3	6	2	5	3	3	4	1	9	1	82
St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	10	11	9	6	4	1	1	1	5	9	11	3	9	1	3	5	3	2	94
U. S. Naval Academy	Philip Youngberg '15	7	5	1	9	8	4	7	6	4	5	1	2	8	8	7	7	8	11	108
Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	3	4	7	4	16	14	2	4	17	4	3	4	5	6	5	6	4	13	121
George Washington University	Daniel Delbello '17	12	18	2	15	10	3	6	7	8	13	4	7	12	2	1	3	2	7	132
Old Dominion University	Nathan Fields '17	6	9	13	3	6	10	14	2	12	2	14	15	2	12	11	12	11	6	160
George Washington University	Colin Kennedy '17	5	6	14	5	9	13	8	9	6	7	OCS	8	10	OCS	8	8	10	3	167
Old Dominion University	Joseph David '16	8	2	17	11	7	11	11	14	10	8	8	13	17	9	14	14	7	12	193
SUNY Maritime College	Matthew Schoene '15	9	17	16	12	18	12	9	10	7	11	9	9	16	16	10	9	5	10	205
Old Dominion University	Daniel Lochner '15	11	8	12	14	12	9	15	13	9	12	12	10	13	14	9	11	12	9	205
Fordham University	Alecsander Tayler '17	18	14	3	7	17	7	17	11	OCS	10	7	11	7	13	12	10	15	8	206
U. S. Naval Academy	Markus Edegran '16	13	13	4	17	1	6	12	15	13	17	6	18	6	11	18	18	13	15	216
Cornell University	Matthew Schofield '17	17	12	10	10	14	15	10	12	11	14	10	12	14	17	17	13	14	14	236
Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	16	1	11	13	13	17	13	18	14	18	15	16	15	10	15	15	16	16	252
Fordham University	Will Holz '17	15	16	15	16	11	18	18	16	15	16	13	6	11	7	13	16	BKD	17	253
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eddie Cox '16	14	10	18	18	15	16	16	17	16	15	OCS	17	18	15	16	17	17	18	292

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Greg Martinez '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	18/18	3.06	4.63	+1.56	83rd → 99th	11.0	3%	4.3 / 7.6
2	Nick Valente '16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	18/18	2.79	4.03	+1.24	75th → 95th	8.0	2%	4.6 / 8.4
2	Olin Paine '16	Fordham University Rams 1	18/18	3.24	3.95	+0.71	85th → 95th	2.8	8%	4.6 / 7.2
4	John Wallace '14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18/18	2.56	3.69	+1.13	67th → 93rd	7.0	2%	5.2 / 9.0
5	Philip Youngberg '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	18/18	2.24	3.61	+1.37	59th → 92nd	10.1	2%	6.0 / 9.9
6	Nevin Snow '16	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	18/18	3.56	2.90	−0.66	92nd → 78th	3.1	62%	6.7 / 6.3
7	Daniel Delbello '17	George Washington University Colonials 1	18/18	2.32	2.87	+0.55	60th → 78th	1.8	12%	7.3 / 9.7
8	Nathan Fields '17	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	18/18	2.13	2.57	+0.44	56th → 67th	1.2	33%	8.9 / 10.1
9	Colin Kennedy '17	George Washington University Colonials 2	18/18	1.87	3.04	+1.16	47th → 83rd	6.9	21%	9.3 / 10.9
10	Joseph David '16	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	18/18	2.06	2.24	+0.18	53rd → 58th	0.2	57%	10.7 / 10.4
11	Daniel Lochner '15	Old Dominion University Big Blue	18/18	2.12	2.24	+0.12	56th → 59th	0.1	72%	11.4 / 10.2
11	Matthew Schoene '15	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	18/18	1.72	2.04	+0.32	43rd → 53rd	0.7	48%	11.4 / 11.4
13	Alecsander Tayler '17	Fordham University Rams 2	18/18	2.35	2.02	−0.33	60th → 53rd	0.7	78%	11.4 / 9.5
14	Markus Edegran '16	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	18/18	2.57	1.52	−1.05	67th → 38th	8.3	93%	12.0 / 9.0
15	Matthew Schofield '17	Cornell University Big Red 2	18/18	2.31	1.73	−0.57	60th → 43rd	2.6	91%	13.1 / 9.7
16	Daniel Birmingham '17	Cornell University Big Red 1	18/18	1.74	1.32	−0.42	43rd → 30th	1.2	92%	14.0 / 11.3
17	Will Holz '17	Fordham University Rams 3	18/18	2.03	1.38	−0.65	53rd → 33rd	3.0	98%	14.3 / 10.5
18	Eddie Cox '16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	18/18	2.31	0.67	−1.64	60th → 17th	19.7	>99%	16.2 / 9.7

Conditions — 10/12/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 86% · Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.4 kn

avg · max 11.8 kn

Gusts to 21.0 kn

From NE (38°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1018.5 hPa Rain0.16 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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