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David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 16 14 30
2 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 53 22 75
3 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 45 30 75
4 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 26 50 76
5 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 36 42 78
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 55 24 79
7 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 37 43 80
8 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 38 43 81
9 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 43 76 119
10 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 60 63 123
11 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 82 67 149
12 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 76 78 154
13 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 72 97 169
14 Skidmore College Skidmore College Skidmore 97 86 183
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 3 1 6 1 1 2 16 Eddie Cox '16 [1-6]
Elliott Morrill '15 [7]
Morgan Gaudet '18 [1-6]
Elizabeth Mccabe '18 [7]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 4 1 5 1 3 4 8 26 Ryan Seago '14
Emily Gazall '16
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 9 4 8 2 5 2 6 36 Charles Bocklet '18
Mason Engnes '17
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 5 RAF 4 7 2 3 1 37 Hunter Johnstone '16
Connor Lehan '18
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 7 2 6 10 4 5 4 38 Joseph David '16
Kaylie Gallagher '16
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 3 8 3 9 6 9 5 43 Peter Hidley '17
Anna Palmer '17
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 10 9 7 3 7 6 3 45 Duncan Howes '15
Tara Bergstrom '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 6 5 9 8 11 7 7 53 Jonathan Lutz '17
Hannah Chapman '17
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 10 11 5 9 8 11 55 Patrick Snow '17
Connor Hendi '15
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 8 7 2 13 10 10 10 60 Griffin Orr '15
Peter Smith '16
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 13 6 12 4 13 12 12 72 Adam Devita '18
Michael Wedd '18
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 11 11 13 11 8 13 9 76 Vincent Storino '18
Heidi Neubelt '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 12 12 10 12 12 11 13 82 Travis Cottle '15
Yi Zhang '17
Skidmore College Skidmore College Skidmore 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 97 Andrew Lowy '15
Morgan Lavoie '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 1 3 1 1 1 6 14 Greiner Hobbs '18 [1-6]
Parker Trepton '18 [7]
Haley Okun '18 [1-6]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 2 1 4 4 5 4 22 Kyle Burgess '17
Grace Mcdougall '16
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 5 2 3 2 7 2 24 Jimmy Madigan '18
Michelle Katz '18
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 7 5 2 5 6 1 30 Clayton Sasaki '18 [1-7]
Alex Gatto '15 [1-4, 7]
Connor Juckniess '18 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 7 9 6 5 6 4 5 42 Soren Walljasper '17
Korina Hendricks '17
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 5 3 12 7 7 2 7 43 Erik Weis '18
Mia Steck '17
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 8 6 4 8 3 11 3 43 Jacob Spracher '15
Carter Little '18
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 6 8 8 6 8 3 11 50 Mason Wolters '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Dj Litts '18 [3-4, 7]
Alison Bradley '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Lane Tobin '18 [3-4, 7]
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 9 4 9 11 10 8 12 63 Rory Mess '16
Emily Hann '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 10 10 7 10 12 10 8 67 Jacob Bruce '16
Hannah Goblirsch '17
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Dolphins 12 13 10 14 9 9 9 76 Allison Price '16
Kelsy Waack '18
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 11 11 11 12 11 12 10 78 Padraig Loughlin '15
Jamie Collins '16
Skidmore College Skidmore College Skidmore 13 12 13 9 13 13 13 86 Willa Cassidy-Gardner '17
Jonathan Zaskorski '17
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 97 Nicole Edwards '18
Shawn Patel '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls12121010886
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions1133557
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red221414121210
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green3355779
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen4422141412
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins55779911
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners101088664
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines131311335
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen11111313113
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats66442214
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs7799111113
Skidmore CollegeSkidmore College Skidmore8866442
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks99111113131
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1414121210108

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls111199775
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions2244668
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red11131311119
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green44668810
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen3311131311
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Dolphins6688101012
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners9977553
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines141422446
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen12121414224
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats55331113
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs881010121214
Skidmore CollegeSkidmore College Skidmore7755331
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1010121214142
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers13131111997
School / Team SkipperCrew
Columbia University Columbia University Adam Devita '18 Michael Wedd '18
Lions Nicole Edwards '18 Shawn Patel '15
Cornell University Cornell University Duncan Howes '15 Tara Bergstrom '18
Big Red Clayton Sasaki '18 [1-7] Alex Gatto '15 [1-4, 7]
Connor Juckniess '18 [5-6]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Hunter Johnstone '16 Connor Lehan '18
Big Green Erik Weis '18 Mia Steck '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Eddie Cox '16 [1-6]
Elliott Morrill '15 [7]		 Morgan Gaudet '18 [1-6]
Elizabeth Mccabe '18 [7]
Statesmen Greiner Hobbs '18 [1-6]
Parker Trepton '18 [7]		 Haley Okun '18 [1-6]
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Peter Hidley '17 Anna Palmer '17
Dolphins Allison Price '16 Kelsy Waack '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University Travis Cottle '15 Yi Zhang '17
Wildcats Jacob Bruce '16 Hannah Goblirsch '17
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Joseph David '16 Kaylie Gallagher '16
Monarchs Jacob Spracher '15 Carter Little '18
Skidmore College Skidmore College Andrew Lowy '15 Morgan Lavoie '17
Skidmore Willa Cassidy-Gardner '17 Jonathan Zaskorski '17
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Jonathan Lutz '17 Hannah Chapman '17
Seahawks Kyle Burgess '17 Grace Mcdougall '16
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Vincent Storino '18 Heidi Neubelt '17
Mariners Padraig Loughlin '15 Jamie Collins '16
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Patrick Snow '17 Connor Hendi '15
Midshipmen Jimmy Madigan '18 Michelle Katz '18
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Griffin Orr '15 Peter Smith '16
Bulls Rory Mess '16 Emily Hann '17
University of Michigan University of Michigan Ryan Seago '14 Emily Gazall '16
Wolverines Mason Wolters '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Dj Litts '18 [3-4, 7]		 Alison Bradley '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Lane Tobin '18 [3-4, 7]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Charles Bocklet '18 Mason Engnes '17
Badgers Soren Walljasper '17 Korina Hendricks '17

Conditions — 10/11/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1020.9 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From NNW (332°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1020.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · E 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William Sm: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William Sm by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (30 labelled days at Hobart & William Sm).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →