Hobart and William Smith Colleges '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.54 (fleet 3.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 102–84 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 6 | 53–35 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 42–41 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 7–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (171 matches) the record is 95–76 against 96.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.43 | 3.32 | 6–8 | 6.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.43 | 3.30 | 6–1 | 6.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.40 | 3.49 | 14–4 | 13.7 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.47 | 2.39 | 3–12 | 5.2 | −1.08 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 3.44 | 3.33 | 8–6 | 8.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2015-03-07 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.23 | 3.21 | 16–4 | 16.1 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.72 | 2.27 | 6–15 | 7.4 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.06 | 3.22 | 6–1 | 5.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.77 | 3.25 | 14–7 | 11.9 | +0.48 | 0.7 | 23% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.09 | 3.18 | 5–10 | 4.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.03 | 2.93 | 2–7 | 2.1 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 3.77 | 9–1 | 8.2 | +0.74 | 0.4 | 42% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.0 | 3.58 |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | A | 2 | 14.0 | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.0 | 2.65 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.2 | 3.14 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.8 | 3.61 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 2.8 | 4.74 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.1 | 3.92 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.3 | 3.59 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.2 | 3.10 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.0 | 3.26 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.7 | 1.68 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 4.36 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.8 | 2.83 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.5 | 3.47 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.0 | 2.12 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 1.33 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 2.77 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.7 | 2.65 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.9 | 3.39 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.6 | 2.50 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.8 | 3.28 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 19 | 9.0 | 3.07 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| North 2 | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.1 | 1.80 |
| MAISA Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.9 | 2.83 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 1.6 | 3.85 |
| Big Apple Classic/Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.0 | 1.76 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
