| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 14–1 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 13–2 |
| 3 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 7–8 |
| 3 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 7–8 |
| 5 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 4–11 |
| 6 |  |
Villanova University | Wildcats | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 133 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 45 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.223 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 13.54 | 14.92 | 14–1 | 12.1 | +1.38 | 1.6 | 16% |
| 2 | Georgetown University | 13.43 | 14.03 | 13–2 | 12.0 | +0.60 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 3 | Fordham University | 11.82 | 11.76 | 7–8 | 7.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 5 | SUNY Maritime College | 10.53 | 10.43 | 4–11 | 4.1 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 12.51 | 11.30 | 7–8 | 9.5 | −1.21 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 6 | Villanova University | 6.63 | 3.63 | 0–15 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Hoyas | Rams | Statesmen | Privateers | Wildcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 2–3 | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Villanova University Wildcats | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Hoyas | Rams | Statesmen | Privateers | Wildcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 3–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Villanova University Wildcats | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Seahawks | Hoyas | Rams | Statesmen | Privateers | Wildcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Villanova University Wildcats | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Privateers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Privateers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 DNF |
| 32 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 DNF | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 33 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 36 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 39 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 41 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 44 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Alexander Curtiss '16 Ian Liberty '14 Nicholas Clemence '15 |
Nicole Deangeli '14 Allison Shane '15 Kelley Merryman '14 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Daniel Eichler '13 Greg Martinez '18 Michael Schalka '13 Sean Golden '16 |
Courtney Sherman '13 Eliana Michaels '14 Annalee Leggett '13 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Connor Godfrey '16 Olin Paine '16 Samuel Peirson '16 |
Emma Pfohman '13 Madeleine Sims '16 Dan Canziani '14 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Brendan O'Leary '16 Elliott Morrill '15 Stewart Draheim '16 |
Allison Aughtry '16 Marnie Merrill '15 Julia Oak '14 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | Julia Paxton '14 Matthew Nilsen '14 Mike Carr '15 |
Lauren Albano '16 Christopher Whalen '15 Andrew Haggerty '14 |
|
Villanova University | Wildcats | Domenic Re '15 Sarah Celone '13 Scott Barnhill '14 |
Charles Rice '15 Caroline Carney '16 Nelson Rice '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
