St. Mary's College of Maryland '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.79 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 12 | Fall 2011 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56 (fleet 3.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 68–27 (72%) as crew 1–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 7–0 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 32–9 | 1–0 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 23–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (58 matches) the record is 44–14 against 40.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-07 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.68 | 6.68 | 6–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 18% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.61 | 3.73 | 9–5 | 8.7 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.48 | 4.38 | 14–3 | 11.9 | +0.90 | 1.3 | 16% |
| 2014-03-01 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 3.55 | 3.62 | 9–1 | 8.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.17 | 2.86 | 6–5 | 6.7 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.5 | 3.52 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.0 | 2.63 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.3 | 3.82 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.4 | 4.48 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 1 | 18.0 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.9 | 3.76 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 3.74 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.6 | 3.22 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 4.04 |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.0 | 2.99 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.0 | 3.81 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.7 | 3.15 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.4 | 3.30 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 19 | 5.6 | 4.00 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.1 | 2.49 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.4 | 2.64 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 12 | 11.7 | 2.23 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.3 | 3.75 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.8 | 3.93 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.4 | 4.51 |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 4.92 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.5 | 2.06 |
| MAISA Central qualifer | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.3 | 2.68 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 3.6 | 3.37 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.0 | 2.90 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| WAC Open/Central Fall #2 | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.8 | 2.10 |
| MAISA Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.7 | 2.97 |
| MAISA Laser Qualifier Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 2.24 |
| MAISA Central Qualifier | Skipper | B | 16 | 3.1 | 2.86 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.9 | 1.36 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
