St. Mary's Team Race

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/14/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–1
2	Boston College	Eagles	11–3
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	9–5
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	8–6
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	8–6
6	Brown University	Bears	5–9
7	Harvard University	Crimson	3–6
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	1–8
9	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	1–8
10	Fordham University	Rams	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,463 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 60 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.389 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.45 ± 0.26: an orderly event, more orderly than 89% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	13.04 school −0.09	Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry 4.50 Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 4.99 Malcolm Lamphere / Clara Robertson 3.32 6–1 Joseph Kiss / Clara Robertson 3.90 7–0	74%	13–1 (93%)	+2.7
2	Boston College Eagles	4	12.51	William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 4.13 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 4.15 Raul Rios / Alex Palfrey 4.15	63%	11–3 (79%)	+2.2
3	College of Charleston Cougars	3	12.53 school +0.17	Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.39 Ryan Davidson / Morgan Buckley 3.92 Charles Rees / Tierney Driscoll 4.00	64%	9–5 (64%)	+0.1
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	13.02 school −0.07	Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 4.18 Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 5.04 Alex Post / Bettina Redway 3.84	72%	8–6 (57%)	−2.1
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5	12.39 school +0.54, home +0.29	Edmund Cooper / Allison Shane 3.69 Alexander Curtiss / Mariah Leffingwell 4.08 Jacob La Dow / Shelby Jacobs 3.77 7–6 Nicholas Clemence / Shelby Jacobs 3.73 1–0	59%	8–6 (57%)	−0.2
6	Brown University Bears	7	11.01 school +0.38	Lucas Adams / Marina Cano 3.44 Nathan Allman / Ragna Eide 3.48 Pearson Potts / Rachel Gutman 3.55	30%	5–9 (36%)	+0.8
7	Harvard University Crimson	6	11.25 school −0.29	Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 4.23 Andrew Mollerus / Sydney Karnovsky 3.92 Michael Drumm / Kevin Coakley 3.34 2–6 Michael Drumm / Julia Lord 3.56 1–0	43%	3–6 (33%)	−0.9
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	9	9.92 school −0.42	Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 4.00 Augie Dale / Kaylie Gallagher 3.32 Daniel Lochner / Katelyn Talley 3.15 1–4 Jacob Spracher / Katelyn Talley 2.76 0–4	21%	1–8 (11%)	−0.9
9	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	10	9.11 school −0.16	Nick Valente / Christopher Whalen 3.61 Zachary Hill / Caitlin Cummings 3.74 John Nothacker / Jonathan O'Connell 1.83 1–7 Peter Maes / Jonathan O'Connell 0–1	10%	1–8 (11%)	+0.1
10	Fordham University Rams	8	10.49	Connor Godfrey / Evan Morgan 3.33 Alecsander Tayler / Connor Murphy 3.76 Will Holz / Emma Huntress 3.26	29%	1–8 (11%)	−1.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Yale University	13.04	14.72	13–1	10.3	+1.68	2.8	7%
2	Boston College	12.51	13.40	11–3	8.8	+0.90	1.3	15%
6	Brown University	11.01	11.38	5–9	4.2	+0.37	0.2	40%
9	SUNY Maritime College	9.11	9.18	1–8	0.9	+0.07	0.0	66%
3	College of Charleston	12.53	12.55	9–5	8.9	+0.02	0.0	61%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	12.39	12.30	8–6	8.3	−0.10	0.0	68%
7	Harvard University	11.25	10.67	3–6	3.9	−0.59	0.4	87%
4	Georgetown University	13.02	12.18	8–6	10.1	−0.84	1.3	95%
8	Old Dominion University	9.92	8.97	1–8	1.9	−0.95	0.6	92%
10	Fordham University	10.49	8.91	1–8	2.6	−1.58	1.7	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	3.90	6.90	7–0	5.4	≥+3.00	2.7	14%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.50	6.18	13–1	10.3	+1.68	2.8	7%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.99	6.66	13–1	10.3	+1.68	2.8	7%
William Bailey	Boston College	4.13	5.03	11–3	8.8	+0.90	1.3	15%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.15	5.04	11–3	8.8	+0.90	1.3	15%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.15	5.04	11–3	8.8	+0.90	1.3	15%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.44	3.81	5–9	4.2	+0.37	0.2	40%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	3.48	3.85	5–9	4.2	+0.37	0.2	40%
John Nothacker	SUNY Maritime College	1.83	2.08	1–7	0.8	+0.25	0.0	61%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.61	3.68	1–8	0.9	+0.07	0.0	66%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.74	3.81	1–8	0.9	+0.07	0.0	66%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.39	4.41	9–5	8.9	+0.02	0.0	61%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.92	3.94	9–5	8.9	+0.02	0.0	61%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	4.00	4.02	9–5	8.9	+0.02	0.0	61%
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.69	3.59	8–6	8.3	−0.10	0.0	68%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.08	3.98	8–6	8.3	−0.10	0.0	68%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.77	3.66	7–6	7.3	−0.11	0.0	69%
Daniel Lochner	Old Dominion University	3.15	3.01	1–4	1.1	−0.15	0.0	73%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	4.23	3.64	3–6	3.9	−0.59	0.4	87%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.34	2.75	3–6	3.9	−0.59	0.4	87%
Andrew Mollerus	Harvard University	3.92	3.33	3–6	3.9	−0.59	0.4	87%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	4.18	3.34	8–6	10.1	−0.84	1.3	95%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	5.04	4.20	8–6	10.1	−0.84	1.3	95%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.84	3.00	8–6	10.1	−0.84	1.3	95%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	4.00	3.05	1–8	1.9	−0.95	0.6	92%
Augie Dale	Old Dominion University	3.32	2.37	1–8	1.9	−0.95	0.6	92%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.33	1.75	1–8	2.6	−1.58	1.7	98%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.76	2.18	1–8	2.6	−1.58	1.7	98%
Will Holz	Fordham University	3.26	1.68	1–8	2.6	−1.58	1.7	98%
Jacob Spracher	Old Dominion University	2.76	-0.24	0–4	0.8	≤−3.00	1.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Harvard University	86%
1	2	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	79%
1	3	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	94%
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	82%
1	5	Yale University	Boston College	57%
1	6	Georgetown University	Fordham University	93%
1	7	College of Charleston	Harvard University	78%
1	8	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	87%
1	9	Yale University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	10	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	11	College of Charleston	Fordham University	88%
1	12	Georgetown University	Brown University	89%
1	13	Yale University	Harvard University	82%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	15	Boston College	Old Dominion University	92%
1	16	College of Charleston	Brown University	82%
1	17	Yale University	Fordham University	91%
1	18	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
1	19	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	76%
1	20	Boston College	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	21	Yale University	Brown University	91%
1	22	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
1	23	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	40%	upset
1	24	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	25	Boston College	Harvard University	78%
1	26	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	72%
1	27	Brown University	Old Dominion University	71%
1	28	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	29	Harvard University	Fordham University	67%
1	30	Boston College	Georgetown University	37%	upset
1	31	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	91%
1	32	Yale University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	33	Brown University	Harvard University	44%	upset
1	34	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	62%
1	35	Boston College	Fordham University	88%
1	36	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	35%	upset
1	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Harvard University	76%
1	38	Yale University	Georgetown University	58%
1	39	Brown University	Fordham University	62%
1	40	College of Charleston	Boston College	50%
1	41	Harvard University	SUNY Maritime College	88%
1	42	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	96%
1	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	86%
1	44	Yale University	College of Charleston	56%
1	45	Boston College	Brown University	81%
6	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	79%
6	47	Boston College	Yale University	44%	upset
6	48	College of Charleston	Brown University	81%
6	49	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
6	50	Brown University	Georgetown University	13%	upset
6	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	35%	upset
6	52	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	72%
6	53	Boston College	Brown University	81%
6	54	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	38%	upset
6	55	Yale University	Brown University	90%
6	56	Georgetown University	Boston College	62%
6	57	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	47%	upset
6	58	Yale University	Georgetown University	58%
6	59	Boston College	College of Charleston	50%	upset
6	60	Yale University	College of Charleston	55%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cougars	Hoyas	Seahawks	Bears	Crimson	Monarchs	Privateers	Rams
Yale University Bulldogs	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	7–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	7–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Cougars	Hoyas	Seahawks	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–4	L	W	L	✕	L	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Brown University Bears	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
2	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
3	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
4	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
7	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
8	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
9	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
10	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
11	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
12	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
14	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
15	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
16	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
19	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
20	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
21	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
22	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
23	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
24	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
26	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
28	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
29	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
30	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
31	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
32	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
33	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
34	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
36	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
37	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
40	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
41	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
42	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
44	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
45	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
46	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
48	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
49	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
50	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
51	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
52	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
53	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
54	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
55	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
56	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
57	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
59	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
60	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17 Joseph Kiss '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18	Katherine Gaumond '15 Meredith Megarry '17 Clara Robertson '17
Boston College	Eagles	Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Elizabeth Barnard '15 Alex Palfrey '17 Katherine Wysocki '15
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Ryan Davidson '16	Tierney Driscoll '15 Alicia Blumenthal '15 Morgan Buckley '15
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Bettina Redway '16 Katia Dasilva '15 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Edmund Cooper '17 Jacob La Dow '15 Nicholas Clemence '15	Mariah Leffingwell '16 Allison Shane '15 Shelby Jacobs '17
Brown University	Bears	Lucas Adams '15 Nathan Allman '16 Pearson Potts '16	Marina Cano '17 Ragna Eide '16 Rachel Gutman '17
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Mollerus '16 Brian Drumm '15 Michael Drumm '15	Sydney Karnovsky '16 Jacob Bradt '16 Kevin Coakley '18 Julia Lord '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Augie Dale '18 Daniel Lochner '15 Esteban Forrer '16 Jacob Spracher '15	Kaylie Gallagher '16 Katelyn Talley '16 Gabriel Smith '17
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	John Nothacker '16 Nick Valente '16 Peter Maes '18 Zachary Hill '18	Jonathan O'Connell '15 Christopher Whalen '15 Caitlin Cummings '18
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Connor Murphy '16 Evan Morgan '18 Emma Huntress '16

Conditions — 03/14/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle

Humidity 100% · Pressure 1014.7 hPa

Temperature

50°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.2 kn

avg · max 13.5 kn

Gusts to 22.2 kn

From SSW (206°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity100% Pressure1014.7 hPa Rain0.49 in

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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