St. Mary's College of Maryland '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.63 (fleet 3.62) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 173–97 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 6 | 42–38 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 45–18 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 56–25 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 22–4 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 18 graded regattas (270 matches) the record is 173–97 against 172.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 5 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 8 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 22 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | skipper | 3.05 | 2.73 | 9–12 | 10.4 | −0.32 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.02 | 3.83 | 10–5 | 7.5 | +0.81 | 1.4 | 13% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.09 | 2.77 | 9–7 | 9.9 | −0.32 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2018-03-03 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 2.36 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 2018-02-24 | St. Mary's Quad Team Race | skipper | 3.31 | 2.46 | 10–10 | 13.0 | −0.85 | 1.8 | 97% |
| 2018-02-17 | ODU Quad | skipper | 3.31 | 2.56 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.75 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.73 | 3.99 | 18–7 | 16.9 | +0.25 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2016-04-09 | MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.62 | 4.76 | 13–2 | 11.0 | +1.14 | 1.5 | 15% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.65 | 3.21 | 14–9 | 15.7 | −0.43 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 3.72 | 3.21 | 12–10 | 13.9 | −0.51 | 0.7 | 89% |
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.45 | 4.55 | 12–2 | 9.9 | +1.10 | 1.5 | 15% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.66 | 4.00 | 13–5 | 11.9 | +0.35 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.69 | 3.59 | 8–6 | 8.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-03-07 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.52 | 5.61 | 11–2 | 6.3 | +2.09 | 6.5 | <1% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.56 | 1.94 | 2–7 | 4.3 | −1.62 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 5.96 | 15–0 | 13.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 13% |
| 2014-03-01 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 3.25 | 2.16 | 7–4 | 8.7 | −1.09 | 1.4 | 97% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.11 | 2.80 | 6–5 | 6.7 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Quad Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| ODU Quad | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.1 | 3.12 |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.8 | 2.22 |
| Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | Skipper | TR | 21 | 43% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.2 | 4.39 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.5 | 3.88 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.8 | 3.32 |
| South Qualifier | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.7 | 3.32 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.8 | 3.96 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.5 | 4.16 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.2 | 3.96 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 4.01 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 25 | 72% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.5 | 3.71 |
| MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 93% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 23 | 61% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 3.63 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.6 | 3.67 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.7 | 3.42 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.6 | 3.44 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA South Dinghy Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.9 | 3.33 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.2 | 4.04 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.7 | 3.31 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 100% | — |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.1 | 3.55 |
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.6 | 4.09 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.8 | 2.58 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
