| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
University of Virginia | Wahoos | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,566 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 15 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.199 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.45 ± 0.46: a typical event, more orderly than 90% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgetown University | 11.43 | 14.43 | 5–0 | 4.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 61% |
| 2 | George Washington University | 9.73 | 11.09 | 4–1 | 3.1 | +1.36 | 0.8 | 32% |
| 4 | Fordham University | 8.60 | 8.64 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 3 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 10.21 | 9.38 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 5 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 7.95 | 6.43 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.52 | 0.7 | 98% |
| 6 | University of Virginia | 5.53 | 2.53 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | Georgetown University | 3.71 | 6.71 | 5–0 | 4.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 61% |
| Andrew Sheerin | George Washington University | 3.20 | 4.56 | 4–1 | 3.1 | +1.36 | 0.8 | 32% |
| Roberto Stevens | Fordham University | 2.90 | 2.93 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Edmund Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.19 | 2.36 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 91% |
| Charles Lomax | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 3.51 | 1.99 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.52 | 0.7 | 98% |
| Colin Suvak | University of Virginia | 2.37 | -0.63 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Colleen Roney | University of Virginia | 0.95 | -2.05 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Alexander Singh | University of Virginia | 1.93 | -1.07 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Colonials | Seahawks | Rams | Mariners | Wahoos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Virginia Wahoos | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Colonials | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wahoos | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wahoos | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wahoos | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wahoos | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wahoos | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Roger Dorr '18 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20 |
Caroline Teare '21 Rebecca Fung '19 Meaghan Macrae '18 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18 |
Matthew Homa '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Miranda Bakos '18 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Dane Byerly '20 Edmund Cooper '17 Liam Mccarthy '19 |
Thomas Walker '21 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kira Allen '18 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Brad Seferian '19 Matt Cappetta '19 Roberto Stevens '19 Tucker Hersam '20 |
Lauren Holderman '18 William Dumke '20 Declan Lombard '21 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | Carrson Pearce '21 Charles Lomax '18 Devin Keister '18 Ryan Hunter '21 |
Luke Welker '21 Vincent Storino '18 Kieran Cullen '21 |
|
University of Virginia | Wahoos | Alexander Singh '19 Colin Suvak '19 Colleen Roney '18 |
Connor Segal '20 Jillian Ticatch '21 Hannah Lothrop '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
