U. S. Merchant Marine Academy '18
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.67 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 2 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.94 (fleet 4.06) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 39–65 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 17–32 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 16–24 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (104 matches) the record is 39–65 against 44.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.44 | 2.95 | 8–7 | 9.4 | −0.49 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.47 | 3.27 | 3–11 | 3.5 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.50 | 3.68 | 5–10 | 4.6 | +0.19 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2018-03-03 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.51 | 1.99 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −1.52 | 0.7 | 98% |
| 2016-03-26 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.05 | 4.94 | 6–9 | 2.4 | +1.90 | 5.4 | 1% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.29 | 1.56 | 2–5 | 4.1 | −1.74 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 2.23 | 4–14 | 7.7 | −1.13 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2015-03-21 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 3.13 | 2.61 | 10–5 | 11.1 | −0.52 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.1 | 3.35 |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.4 | 4.31 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | 4.47 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.6 | 4.24 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.4 | 5.03 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.0 | 4.55 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.0 | 4.11 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.3 | 4.29 |
| MAISA Match Race Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| David Lee Arnoff Regatta | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.9 | 4.08 |
| Central Fall Qualifer | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.2 | 4.25 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.5 | 3.82 |
| 43rd Henry H.Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.4 | 3.73 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.3 | 3.25 |
| Gill Coed College Sailing National Championship | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.2 | 4.50 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.5 | 4.47 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.1 | 4.34 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.7 | 4.20 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | A | 11 | 2.8 | 5.56 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.6 | 4.28 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.7 | 3.91 |
| Central Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.2 | 5.97 |
| 43rd Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.1 | 4.81 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.3 | 3.67 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.5 | 3.97 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.1 | 4.06 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.6 | 2.60 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.2 | 3.77 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.1 | 3.51 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.7 | 3.27 |
| MAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.7 | 3.53 |
| Central Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.8 | 4.13 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 2.61 |
| ODU Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.1 | 3.48 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.5 | 3.56 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 4.65 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.4 | 3.27 |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 4.25 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.6 | 4.00 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.3 | 3.14 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 3.29 |
| Luce Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.4 | 3.40 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.4 | 3.69 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.8 | 2.38 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.8 | 2.80 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
