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Central Fall Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 10 22 32
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 26 19 45
3 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 50 29 79
4 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 50 41 91
5 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 46 48 94
6 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 26 70 96
7 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 56 45 101
8 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 66 52 118
9 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 67 62 129
10 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 69 85 154
11 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 71 90 161
12 Nittany Lions Nittany Lions Nittany Lions 95 93 188
13 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 97 92 189
14 Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 111 92 203
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 Charles Lomax '18
Gabrielle Neubelt '17
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 2 2 7 3 6 3 2 26 Parker Loftus '20
Molly Hanson '17
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 6 3 3 2 2 3 2 5 26 Vidar Minkovsky '18
Micayla Beyer '19
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 9 7 4 5 11 2 4 4 46 Joseph Egan '18 [1-2]
Drew Gallagher '18 [3-8]
Laura Whelan '20 [1-2]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 9 5 6 6 9 6 7 50 Robert Whitaker '18 [1-6]
Daniel Sullivan '19 [7-8]
Victoria Tang '19 [1-4]
Ernest Ruehl '19 [5-6]
Oscar Mahoney '18 [7-8]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 5 4 6 12 8 5 7 3 50 Julian Fraize '18 [1-8]
Matthew Roleke '19 [1-6]
Meredith Foor '18 [7-8]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 4 6 8 10 7 7 8 6 56 Alexander Smith '17
Karlyn Long '17
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 8 5 7 9 5 12 9 11 66 Trevor Koerwer '19 [1-8]
Elisabeth Day '18 [1-6]
Brooklyn Curtin '20 [7-8]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 10 12 10 3 9 4 11 8 67 Mitchell Nunn '18
Lauren Pepsny '18
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 11 8 9 11 4 11 5 10 69 Frederick Piasecki '20
Madeline Delvescovo '20
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 7 10 11 4 10 10 10 9 71 Evan Shone '17 [1-8]
Morgan Dezendorf '17 [1-6]
Sean Crandall '19 [7-8]
Nittany Lions Nittany Lions Nittany Lions 12 11 13 8 12 13 13 13 95
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 13 13 12 13 14 8 12 12 97 Amanda Nuse '17
Charlotte Molali '19
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 111 Taylor Niles '17
Robert Jarrett '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 1 1 2 7 2 2 1 19 Peter Hogan '18
Sarah Barkley '19
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 2 4 1 8 3 1 2 22 Max Neubelt '17
Garrett Lawlor '20
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 5 2 3 3 7 3 4 29 Anne Sidamon-Eristoff '20 [1-8]
Adrienne Mandelbaum '20 [1-5]
George Kevrekidis '18 [6-8]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 7 4 5 7 4 1 8 5 41 Andrew O'Brien '19
Jesse Stevenson '19
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 10 7 3 4 1 6 7 7 45 Hannah Schmidt '17
Lindsey Arnstein '18
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4 3 6 8 6 9 6 6 48 Caroline Garth '17 [1-8]
Anastasia Efremkina '19 [1-5]
Dana Hackett '20 [6-8]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 8 6 7 9 2 5 12 3 52 Bailey Cornog '19
Austin Tipp '18
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 5 9 10 6 5 12 4 11 62 John Kirk '17
Angelina Graham '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 9 10 9 5 10 4 13 10 70 Nicholas Manfredi '19
Samantha Zito '18
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 13 8 13 12 11 11 9 8 85 Haley Clemson '20
Elizabeth Jarvie '18
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 11 11 14 11 9 10 11 13 90 Cathleen Murphy '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Walker Schwartz '20 [3-4]
Stephen Schindel '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 6 13 8 10 14 13 14 14 92 Michael Molman '20
Anastasia Tselevich '19
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 14 12 12 14 12 14 5 9 92 Veronica Lane '19
Katherine Foley '19
Nittany Lions Nittany Lions Nittany Lions 12 14 11 13 13 8 10 12 93
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens111113131133
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons11335577
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners991111131311
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks22446688
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen10101212141422
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings33557799
Nittany LionsNittany Lions Nittany Lions4466881010
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers121214142244
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers5577991111
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights668810101212
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks88101012121414
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves779911111313
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1313113355
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1414224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens121214142244
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons22446688
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners10101212141422
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks33557799
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen111113131133
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings4466881010
Nittany LionsNittany Lions Nittany Lions5577991111
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers1313113355
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers668810101212
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights779911111313
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks991111131311
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves88101012121414
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1414224466
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Drexel University Drexel University Frederick Piasecki '20 Madeline Delvescovo '20
Dragons Haley Clemson '20 Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Monmouth University Monmouth University Amanda Nuse '17 Charlotte Molali '19
Hawks Veronica Lane '19 Katherine Foley '19
Ocean County College Ocean County College Mitchell Nunn '18 Lauren Pepsny '18
Vikings John Kirk '17 Angelina Graham '19
Princeton University Princeton University Robert Whitaker '18 [1-6]
Daniel Sullivan '19 [7-8]		 Victoria Tang '19 [1-4]
Ernest Ruehl '19 [5-6]
Oscar Mahoney '18 [7-8]
Tigers Anne Sidamon-Eristoff '20 [1-8] Adrienne Mandelbaum '20 [1-5]
George Kevrekidis '18 [6-8]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Taylor Niles '17 Robert Jarrett '17
Scarlet Knights Michael Molman '20 Anastasia Tselevich '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Vidar Minkovsky '18 Micayla Beyer '19
Seawolves Nicholas Manfredi '19 Samantha Zito '18
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Julian Fraize '18 [1-8] Matthew Roleke '19 [1-6]
Meredith Foor '18 [7-8]
Ducks Andrew O'Brien '19 Jesse Stevenson '19
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Charles Lomax '18 Gabrielle Neubelt '17
Mariners Max Neubelt '17 Garrett Lawlor '20
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Parker Loftus '20 Molly Hanson '17
Midshipmen Peter Hogan '18 Sarah Barkley '19
University of Delaware University of Delaware Evan Shone '17 [1-8] Morgan Dezendorf '17 [1-6]
Sean Crandall '19 [7-8]
Blue Hens Cathleen Murphy '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Walker Schwartz '20 [3-4]		 Stephen Schindel '19 [1-2, 5-8]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Joseph Egan '18 [1-2]
Drew Gallagher '18 [3-8]		 Laura Whelan '20 [1-2]
Quakers Caroline Garth '17 [1-8] Anastasia Efremkina '19 [1-5]
Dana Hackett '20 [6-8]
Villanova University Villanova University Trevor Koerwer '19 [1-8] Elisabeth Day '18 [1-6]
Brooklyn Curtin '20 [7-8]
Wildcats Bailey Cornog '19 Austin Tipp '18
Washington College Washington College Alexander Smith '17 Karlyn Long '17
Shoremen Hannah Schmidt '17 Lindsey Arnstein '18

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From NNE (13°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine5.3 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1019.5 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn · N 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Villanova: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Villanova by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Villanova, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →