University of Pennsylvania '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.23 (fleet 1.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–16 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 6–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 6–16 against 2.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 1.62 | 3.79 | 5–2 | 2.2 | +2.16 | 4.3 | 2% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 1.14 | 2.43 | 1–14 | 0.3 | +1.29 | 0.8 | 27% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | 1.87 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.5 | 1.24 |
| Central Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 1.12 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 14.0 | — |
| MAISA Club Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.3 | 2.70 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.5 | 1.61 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Crew | B | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| OCC Spring Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 1.14 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 3.02 |
| Ocean County Fall Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.8 | 0.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
