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Philly Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 22 33 55
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 46 13 59
3 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 38 51 89
4 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 48 49 97
5 Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 59 40 99
6 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 39 77 116
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 1 3 3 1 1 1 4 1 3 1 1 2 22 Chris Myers '15
Tracy Venella '16
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 3 4 2 4 3 2 2 4 2 3 5 4 38 Liam Boyle '16
Alina Robinson '17
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 2 2 1 6 2 3 6 3 4 5 2 3 39 John Shanahan '16 [1-12]
Amanda Macedo '16 [1-4, 11-12]
Morgan Mills '15 [5-10]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 6 5 5 2 6 6 3 6 1 2 3 1 46 Maxwell Ryder '16 [1-4]
Matthias Chia '15 [5-8]
Keen Butcher '18 [9-12]
Christina Atterbury '15 [1-8]
Catie Hopkins '17 [9-12]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 4 1 6 3 4 5 1 2 5 6 6 5 48 David Alldian '17 [1-8]
Jimmy Muller '16 [9-12]
Gregory Travers '18 [1-8]
Lawson Buckley '18 [9-12]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 5 6 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 4 4 6 59 Brogan Savage '15 [1-12]
Deborahanne Neri '18 [1-6, 9-12]
Jordan Ostrowiak '17 [7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 13 Bernardo Penteado '18 [1-8]
Joseph Egan '18 [9-12]
Djavaneh Bierwirth '18 [1-8]
Alexander Shea '18 [9-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 2 2 5 4 2 3 2 2 2 5 1 3 33 Jeffrey Proko '18
Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 3 3 2 2 3 4 DNF 3 3 2 3 5 40 Amanda Nuse '17 [1-12]
Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [1-6, 9-12]
Kevin Moedt '16 [7-8]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 5 6 4 3 4 2 DNF 4 4 4 4 2 49 Alex Heid '15 [1-8]
Casey Jackson '17 [9-12]
Lawson Buckley '18 [1-8]
Andrew Reed '18 [9-12]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 4 4 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 3 5 4 51 Alexandra Stapienski '16 [1-10]
Mitchell Nunn '18 [11-12]
Zachary Rose '15 [1-10]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 6 5 6 6 DNF DNF DNF DNS 6 6 DNS DNS 77 Mackenzie Nelson '15
Kristen Einthoven '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons221188776655
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth334455667788
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings443322118877
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions556677881122
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers778811223344
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats887766554433

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons221188776655
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth334455667788
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings443322118877
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions556677881122
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers778811223344
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats887766554433
School / Team SkipperCrew
Drexel University Drexel University Chris Myers '15 Tracy Venella '16
Dragons Jeffrey Proko '18 Elizabeth Jarvie '18
Monmouth University Monmouth University Brogan Savage '15 [1-12] Deborahanne Neri '18 [1-6, 9-12]
Jordan Ostrowiak '17 [7-8]
Monmouth Amanda Nuse '17 [1-12] Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [1-6, 9-12]
Kevin Moedt '16 [7-8]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Liam Boyle '16 Alina Robinson '17
Vikings Alexandra Stapienski '16 [1-10]
Mitchell Nunn '18 [11-12]		 Zachary Rose '15 [1-10]
Penn State University Penn State University John Shanahan '16 [1-12] Amanda Macedo '16 [1-4, 11-12]
Morgan Mills '15 [5-10]
Nittany Lions Mackenzie Nelson '15 Kristen Einthoven '18
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Maxwell Ryder '16 [1-4]
Matthias Chia '15 [5-8]
Keen Butcher '18 [9-12]		 Christina Atterbury '15 [1-8]
Catie Hopkins '17 [9-12]
Quakers Bernardo Penteado '18 [1-8]
Joseph Egan '18 [9-12]		 Djavaneh Bierwirth '18 [1-8]
Alexander Shea '18 [9-12]
Villanova University Villanova University David Alldian '17 [1-8]
Jimmy Muller '16 [9-12]		 Gregory Travers '18 [1-8]
Lawson Buckley '18 [9-12]
Wildcats Alex Heid '15 [1-8]
Casey Jackson '17 [9-12]		 Lawson Buckley '18 [1-8]
Andrew Reed '18 [9-12]

Conditions — 10/04/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1002.1 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From WNW (286°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1002.1 hPa Rain0.15 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn* · W 10 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pennsylvania: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.27 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pennsylvania by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Pennsylvania, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →