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Ocean County Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 20 31 51
2 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 51 36 87
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 54 39 93
4 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 58 94 152
5 Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 87 67 154
6 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 58 120 178
7 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 99 89 188
8 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 105 88 193
9 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 108 90 198
10 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 97 105 202
11 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 121 105 226
12 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 162 116 278
13 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 132 170 302
14 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 164 154 318
15 Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 179 182 361
16 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 163 213 376
17 Bucknell University Bucknell University Bison 195 181 376
18 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 213 192 405
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 4 1 20 Jonathan Lutz '17
Hannah Chapman '17
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 7 8 3 2 5 3 4 4 6 1 3 5 51 Anders Ekholm '17
Gabrielle Mascio '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 5 12 5 7 4 2 3 5 4 2 2 54 Hannah Hughes '17
Sahara Graft '18
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 2 13 4 10 4 5 7 1 2 6 1 3 58 Julian Fraize '18 [1-12]
Meredith Foor '18 [1-2]
Peter Teague '18 [3-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 4 3 2 3 8 2 1 8 8 7 6 6 58 Chris Myers '15
Tracy Venella '16
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 8 2 5 11 3 9 12 9 4 5 8 11 87 Sara Klik '17
Anna Conway '17
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 12 9 7 8 9 6 8 17 3 3 7 8 97 Liam Boyle '16
Alina Robinson '17
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 11 7 8 9 1 13 10 7 10 9 5 9 99 Amanda Attardi '17 [1-12]
Hanna Halleck-Pinkleton '18 [1-6, 11-12]
Benjamin Kempton '18 [7-10]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 9 11 9 7 12 8 11 5 9 11 9 4 105 Constantine Spentzos '17
Pranav Sood '17
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 10 12 6 12 6 12 5 11 7 8 12 7 108 Alexander Smith '17
Allison Cochran '18
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 6 10 10 4 13 15 6 12 13 10 10 12 121 Samuel Keesee '17
Elizabeth Kelley '17
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 14 4 14 6 15 16 9 6 12 12 14 10 132 Cody Murphy '17
Sara Conway '16
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 5 6 11 DSQ 16 7 17 13 DNS DNS 17 13 162 Carolyn Kearney '18 [1-10]
Steven Ho '16 [11-12]
Cruz Vargas '15 [1-10]
Carolyn Kearney '18 [11-12]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 15 16 13 13 11 11 16 10 14 14 16 14 163 Sarah Culp '17
Sarah Darr '17
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 17 14 16 16 10 10 13 14 11 16 11 16 164 Sydney Mandelbaum '17 [1-12]
Samuel Cabot '17 [1-2, 5-12]
Aaron Sun '18 [3-4]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 13 17 15 15 14 14 14 16 16 13 15 17 179 Taylor Niles '17 [1-8]
Mary Morgan '15 [9-12]
Jeremy Welsch '18 [1-8]
Bucknell University Bucknell University Bison 16 18 17 14 17 17 15 15 15 15 18 18 195 Peter Lander '15
Nathan Gleason '15
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 18 15 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 13 15 213 Nicole Edwards '18 [1-10]
Catherine Thies '16 [11-12]
Louisa Sainz De La Maza '18 [1-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 4 6 5 1 1 1 3 4 1 2 2 31 Thomas Galster '15
Elleanor Wells '18
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 9 1 4 2 6 2 2 1 2 2 1 4 36 Amanda Stapp '18
Bailey Fryer '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 3 1 4 5 4 3 2 1 3 6 3 39 James Morgan '18
Jillian Foley '18
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 2 2 3 1 7 3 8 7 5 12 7 10 67 Emily Bicks '16
Matthew Nelson '17
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 3 5 13 12 2 7 10 6 8 6 8 8 88 Vidar Minkovsky '18
Samantha Zito '18
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 12 11 7 11 12 13 6 5 3 4 4 1 89 Anders Hudson '17 [1-2, 5-12]
Shelby Locke '16 [3-4]
Laura Kilgore '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Benjamin Kempton '18 [3-4]
Shelby Locke '16 [7-12]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 10 9 5 10 3 9 4 4 9 11 11 5 90 Hannah Schmidt '17 [1-12]
Bridgette Hindt '18 [1-2]
Maura Matthews '18 [3-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 7 12 8 6 8 6 5 10 6 5 10 11 94 Jakub Tyczynski '15 [1-6, 9-12]
Jeffrey Proko '18 [7-8]
Barrett Adams '17 [1-6, 9-12]
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 6 7 12 9 11 8 9 12 12 7 3 9 105 Patrick Mazzeo '18
Anna Li '17
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 13 13 2 3 10 12 12 8 11 9 5 7 105 Thomas Burke '15 [1-2]
Ted Wingender '16 [3-12]
Mackenzie Kurten '15 [1-2]
Alexandra Stapienski '16 [3-12]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 8 6 11 7 4 5 7 11 DNS DNS 13 6 116 Joseph Egan '18 [1-12]
Djavaneh Bierwirth '18 [1-10]
Cruz Vargas '15 [11-12]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 11 8 9 8 9 10 11 9 7 8 14 16 120 Thomas Slook '18
Samantha Adornati '15
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 15 14 16 13 14 11 13 14 10 10 9 15 154 Bennett Brainard '17 [1-10]
Henry Pease '16 [11-12]
Leila Clark '18 [1-8, 11-12]
Aaron Sun '18 [9-10]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 14 17 10 14 13 14 14 13 14 13 17 17 170 Francis George '15
Jessica Kurlander '18
Bucknell University Bucknell University Bison 17 16 15 15 15 16 15 15 13 14 16 14 181 Connor Engstrom '16
Amy Patterson '16
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 16 15 14 16 17 15 16 16 15 15 15 12 182 Max Reo '16 [1-8]
Audrey Meehan '18 [9-12]
Ashley Dilkes '18 [1-8]
Max Reo '16 [9-12]
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 5 10 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 12 13 192 Haley Collins '18 [1-12]
Lily Taylor '18 [1-10]
Shawn Patel '15 [11-12]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 18 18 17 17 16 17 17 DNF DNS DNS 18 18 213 Charles Jr. Blair '17
Sarah Ross '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Bucknell UniversityBucknell University Bison112233445566
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains22111818171716161515
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders334455667788
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions4433221118181717
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons55667788991010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams665544332211
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen15151616171718181122
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings778899101011111212
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions887766554433
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers161615151414131312121111
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers9910101111121213131414
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights10109988776655
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks131314141515161617171818
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks1414131312121111101099
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1111112121313141415151616
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2121211111010998877
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1717181811223344
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe181817171616151514141313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Bucknell UniversityBucknell University Bison112233445566
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains22111818171716161515
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders334455667788
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions4433221118181717
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons55667788991010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams665544332211
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen15151616171718181122
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings778899101011111212
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions887766554433
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers161615151414131312121111
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers9910101111121213131414
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights10109988776655
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks131314141515161617171818
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks1414131312121111101099
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1111112121313141415151616
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2121211111010998877
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1717181811223344
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe181817171616151514141313
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bucknell University Bucknell University Peter Lander '15 Nathan Gleason '15
Bison Connor Engstrom '16 Amy Patterson '16
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Amanda Attardi '17 [1-12] Hanna Halleck-Pinkleton '18 [1-6, 11-12]
Benjamin Kempton '18 [7-10]
Captains Anders Hudson '17 [1-2, 5-12]
Shelby Locke '16 [3-4]		 Laura Kilgore '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Benjamin Kempton '18 [3-4]
Shelby Locke '16 [7-12]
Colgate University Colgate University Sara Klik '17 Anna Conway '17
Raiders Emily Bicks '16 Matthew Nelson '17
Columbia University Columbia University Nicole Edwards '18 [1-10]
Catherine Thies '16 [11-12]		 Louisa Sainz De La Maza '18 [1-10]
Lions Haley Collins '18 [1-12] Lily Taylor '18 [1-10]
Shawn Patel '15 [11-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Chris Myers '15 Tracy Venella '16
Dragons Jakub Tyczynski '15 [1-6, 9-12]
Jeffrey Proko '18 [7-8]		 Barrett Adams '17 [1-6, 9-12]
Fordham University Fordham University Anders Ekholm '17 Gabrielle Mascio '18
Rams Amanda Stapp '18 Bailey Fryer '18
Ocean County College Ocean County College Liam Boyle '16 Alina Robinson '17
Vikings Thomas Burke '15 [1-2]
Ted Wingender '16 [3-12]		 Mackenzie Kurten '15 [1-2]
Alexandra Stapienski '16 [3-12]
Penn State University Penn State University Sarah Culp '17 Sarah Darr '17
Nittany Lions Charles Jr. Blair '17 Sarah Ross '17
Princeton University Princeton University Sydney Mandelbaum '17 [1-12] Samuel Cabot '17 [1-2, 5-12]
Aaron Sun '18 [3-4]
Tigers Bennett Brainard '17 [1-10]
Henry Pease '16 [11-12]		 Leila Clark '18 [1-8, 11-12]
Aaron Sun '18 [9-10]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Taylor Niles '17 [1-8]
Mary Morgan '15 [9-12]		 Jeremy Welsch '18 [1-8]
Scarlet Knights Max Reo '16 [1-8]
Audrey Meehan '18 [9-12]		 Ashley Dilkes '18 [1-8]
Max Reo '16 [9-12]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Constantine Spentzos '17 Pranav Sood '17
Seawolves 1 Vidar Minkovsky '18 Samantha Zito '18
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Cody Murphy '17 Sara Conway '16
Seawolves 2 Francis George '15 Jessica Kurlander '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Jonathan Lutz '17 Hannah Chapman '17
Seahawks Thomas Galster '15 Elleanor Wells '18
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Julian Fraize '18 [1-12] Meredith Foor '18 [1-2]
Peter Teague '18 [3-12]
Ducks Thomas Slook '18 Samantha Adornati '15
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Hannah Hughes '17 Sahara Graft '18
Midshipmen James Morgan '18 Jillian Foley '18
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Carolyn Kearney '18 [1-10]
Steven Ho '16 [11-12]		 Cruz Vargas '15 [1-10]
Carolyn Kearney '18 [11-12]
Quakers Joseph Egan '18 [1-12] Djavaneh Bierwirth '18 [1-10]
Cruz Vargas '15 [11-12]
Washington College Washington College Alexander Smith '17 Allison Cochran '18
Shoremen Hannah Schmidt '17 [1-12] Bridgette Hindt '18 [1-2]
Maura Matthews '18 [3-12]
William and Mary William and Mary Samuel Keesee '17 Elizabeth Kelley '17
Tribe Patrick Mazzeo '18 Anna Li '17

Conditions — 10/18/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1002.8 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.8 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover36% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1002.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 13 kn · NW 16 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Ocean County: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ocean County by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Ocean County).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →