Columbia University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 (fleet 0.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–10 (9%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 1–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 1–10 against 0.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 0.00 | 2.85 | 1–10 | 0.5 | +2.85 | 0.9 | 48% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.7 | 0.07 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.4 | 0.40 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Mosbacher, Owen, Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.4 | 0.47 |
| MAISA Women’s Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 12.0 | 0.24 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sacred Heart Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.8 | -0.31 |
| Princeton Women's Fall Open Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 0.94 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.0 | -0.32 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| The Stony Brook Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | -1.25 |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 16.4 | -0.95 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 19.8 | -1.89 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | B | 12 | 16.8 | -0.29 |
| Ocean County Fall Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.0 | -1.61 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Colgate Fall Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.8 | -0.19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
