The Stony Brook Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 6 10 16
2 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 16 8 24
3 Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 22 17 39
4 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 24 29 53
5 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 29 27 56
6 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 31 29 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Anders Ekholm '17
Gabrielle Mascio '18
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 2 2 6 2 2 16 Constantine Spentzos '17 [1-6]
Heather Grosso '16 [1-2]
Andrew Lithen '18 [3-6]
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 3 6 3 4 3 3 22 William Herlihy '15
Kristen Lahaise '17
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 4 3 4 5 4 4 24 Sydney Mandelbaum '17 [1-6]
Gokul Mukunda '18 [1]
Cameron Zeluck '18 [2-6]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 6 4 6 3 5 5 29 Kurt Adams '18
Timothy Lynch '16
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 5 5 5 2 DNS DNS 31 Haley Collins '18
Kelsey Burns '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 1 1 1 2 2 8 Vidar Minkovsky '18
Samantha Zito '18
Fordham University Fordham University Rams BKD BKD 2 2 1 1 10 Amanda Stapp '18
Bailey Fryer '18
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 2 2 3 3 4 3 17 David Tampellini '17
Noelle Kelly '17
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 4 3 4 6 6 4 27 Nina Tucker '18
Kaya Manizade '18
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 3 5 5 5 5 6 29 Andrew Sun '16
Margaret O'Rourke '16
Columbia University Columbia University Lions DNF 4 6 4 3 5 29 Loren Myers '16
Shawn Patel '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights772244
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions117755
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams224466
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers335577
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers661122
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves446611

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights111155
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions224466
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams335577
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers446611
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers772244
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves557722

Conditions — 04/11/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1014.8 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 26.8 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1014.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 18 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.23)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.36
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.23 means a rating gap counts about 20% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →