Colgate Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 16 15 31
2 Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 28 38 66
3 University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 29 39 68
4 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 43 31 74
5 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 38 38 76
6 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 71 61 132
7 Hamilton Hamilton Hamilton 96 MRP 88 MRP 184 MRP
8 Skidmore Skidmore Skidmore 110 MRP 110 MRP 220 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 1 2 1 4 2 2 1 1 1 16 Connor Juckniess '18 [1-10]
Noelle Crough '18 [1-8]
Alyson Hirschhorn '18 [9-10]
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 5 2 3 3 1 1 4 3 4 2 28 Sara Klik '17
Joel Roemer '17
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 2 3 5 5 2 3 1 2 3 3 29 Dante Iozzo '16
Megan Eubank '17
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 2 5 38 Nicole Edwards '18
Loren Myers '16
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 3 4 1 2 5 5 6 6 7 4 43 Claire Michaud '18
Nicholas Pardini '16
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions DNF 6 DNF DNF 6 6 7 7 6 6 71 Margot Harvath '18 [1-10]
Charles Jr. Blair '17 [1-6]
Monica Gonzalez-Rivera '16 [7-10]
Hamilton Hamilton Hamilton DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS OCS 5 5 5 7 96 MRP
Skidmore Skidmore Skidmore DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 110 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 15 Clayton Sasaki '18 [1-10]
Alyson Hirschhorn '18 [1-6]
Noelle Crough '18 [7-10]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 5 2 5 5 2 1 2 4 2 3 31 Elliot Greenwald '16
Emily Trenton '18
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 2 5 2 2 1 3 6 6 6 5 38 Haley Collins '18
Yuval Millet '16
Colgate University Colgate University Raiders 6 4 3 3 5 6 3 5 1 2 38 Lindsay Burroughs '17
Matthew Nelson '17
University of Buffalo University of Buffalo Bulls 3 3 4 6 4 4 4 2 5 4 39 James Mullane '15
Peter Smith '16
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 4 6 6 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 61 John Driscoll '18
Kristine Miller '17
Hamilton Hamilton Hamilton DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 5 5 3 4 6 88 MRP
Skidmore Skidmore Skidmore DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 110 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls8811223344
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders1122334455
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions2233445566
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red3344556677
HamiltonHamilton Hamilton4455667788
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions5566778811
SkidmoreSkidmore Skidmore6677881122
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange7788112233

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of BuffaloUniversity of Buffalo Bulls8811223344
Colgate UniversityColgate University Raiders1122334455
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions2233445566
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red3344556677
HamiltonHamilton Hamilton4455667788
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions5566778811
SkidmoreSkidmore Skidmore6677881122
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange7788112233

Conditions — 10/04/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Dense drizzle
Humidity 99%  ·  Pressure 1001.9 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From SW (231°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity99% Pressure1001.9 hPa Rain0.34 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Colgate: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.16 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Colgate by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Colgate: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →