Princeton Women's Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 8 17 25
2 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 14 11 25
3 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 27 13 40
4 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 19 25 44
5 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 21 24 45
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 1 1 1 1 3 1 8 Natalie Tanczak '19
Denby Mcdonnell '17
Columbia University Columbia University Lions BYE 2 3 2 1 4 14 Elizabeth Siegal '16
Kelsey Burns '16
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 3 3 4 4 2 3 19 Sydney Mandelbaum '17
Leila Clark '18
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 4 2 3 5 5 21 Heather Grosso '16
Elizabeth Salzman '19
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 4 5 DNF DNF 4 2 27 Veronica Lane '19 [1-4]
Brogan Savage '15 [5-6]
Meaghan Gotto '17 [1-2]
Mary Healy '18 [3-4]
Alexandra Soubasis '18 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 1 4 2 1 1 2 11 Haley Collins '18
Elizabeth Keeney '19
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 2 2 1 2 5 1 13 Amanda Nuse '17 [1-6]
Alexandra Soubasis '18 [1-2]
Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [3-6]
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 4 1 3 3 2 4 17 Christina Black '19
Nicole Czegledy '17
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 5 5 4 4 3 3 24 Jessica Kurlander '18
Samantha Zito '18
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 3 3 5 5 4 5 25 Victoria Tang '19 [1-2]
Margaret O'Rourke '16 [3-6]
Margaret O'Rourke '16 [1-2]
Jenny Mu '18 [3-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions112233
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks223344
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers334455
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels445511
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves551122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions112233
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks223344
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers334455
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels445511
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves551122

Conditions — 09/26/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1030.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From ENE (72°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.1 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1030.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 12 kn · E 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Princeton: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.35)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Princeton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Princeton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →