Christopher Newport University '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 97.39 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.084 rating points from 248 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.42 (fleet 0.57) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 9–15 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | — | 6–13 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 3–2 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 9–15 against 11.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-21 | C.J. Woollum Team Race | crew | 2.47 | 1.50 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.97 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2015-02-28 | Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | crew | 2.34 | -0.66 | 0–4 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| 2014-02-22 | Pirates 3 on 3 | crew | 2.08 | 2.81 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 44% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb/Woolum Regatta | Crew | A | 10 | 4.0 | — |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 9.2 | — |
| The Leroy Grant Trophy | Crew | A | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 10.2 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Crew | A, B | 8 | 15.8 | — |
| Riley Cup | Crew | A | 4 | 12.2 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 10.0 | — |
| Colony Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.5 | 1.50 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Woollum Regatta | Crew | A | 6 | 11.0 | — |
| William and Mary Spring Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | -0.31 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 11.2 | — |
| ODU Open | Crew | A | 8 | 3.9 | — |
| MAISA Women’s Championship Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 6.9 | — |
| The Leroy Grant | Crew | A | 8 | 3.8 | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Crew | A | 16 | 5.9 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 8.6 | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Crew | A, B | 7 | 13.6 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 15.9 | — |
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.2 | -0.36 |
| War Memorial | Crew | A, B | 7 | 15.7 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.7 | -0.25 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 14.8 | -1.43 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 7.8 | — |
| Henry Luce Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 4.8 | — |
| Colony Cup | Crew | A | 6 | 4.3 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Open | Crew | A | 6 | 5.3 | — |
| Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | Crew | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| C.J. Woollum Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 2.5 | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Crew | B | 6 | 12.3 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Crew | A | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Ocean County Fall Open | Crew | B | 4 | 12.0 | — |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Crew | B | 6 | 3.7 | — |
| KP Dinghy Open | Crew | B | 10 | 8.8 | — |
| Colony Cup | Crew | B | 4 | 2.8 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirates 3 on 3 | Crew | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Crew | A | 8 | 4.5 | — |
| CNU CJ Regatta | Crew | A | 7 | 4.1 | — |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Crew | A | 6 | 8.0 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Crew | A | 9 | 2.9 | — |
| Central Fall #2 | Crew | B | 7 | 5.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
