Colony Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 15 13 28
2 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 2 21 22 43
3 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 38 9 47
4 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 26 27 53
5 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 30 45 75
6 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 35 55 90
7 American University American University Eagles 59 50 109
8 Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 40 70 110
9 William and Mary William and Mary Griffin 62 48 110
10 St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 61 59 120
11 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 75 65 140
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 1 15 Amanda Attardi '17 [1-7]
Lauren Levinson '20 [1-4, 7]
Bailey Hurst '20 [5-6]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 2 2 4 1 2 2 7 3 21 Spencer Charney '20
Christian Denmark '19
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 4 2 6 1 4 3 6 26 Julia Gowell '18
Waverlee Harvey '18
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 3 3 3 9 7 1 4 30 Nathan Thompson '17
Tina Nassehi '17
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 5 8 5 5 1 2 9 35 Connor Chapin '20 [1-6]
Diana Haemer '20 [7]
Juliana Rustum '20 [1-6]
Anna Li '17 [7]
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 7 5 4 4 5 8 5 38 Nicholas Brady '19
Ashley Black '17
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 6 7 8 6 6 5 2 40 Grace Wagner '19
Evan Smithers '19
American University American University Eagles 8 9 7 8 10 9 8 59 Will Sellers '18 [1-7]
Nicholas Del Giudice '19 [1-6]
Morgan Antonez '19 [7]
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 10 10 10 7 11 6 7 61 John Monday '19 [1-2, 7]
Jack Cooper '18 [3-6]
Elizabeth Skelton '18 [1-2, 7]
Sam Cooper '20 [3-6]
William and Mary William and Mary Griffin 9 6 9 10 8 10 10 62 Nina Willms '20 [1-6]
August Williams '18 [7]
Elizabeth Plaster '20 [1-6]
Carol Peng '17 [7]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 11 11 11 11 9 11 11 75 Kristian Sonsteby '20
David Stude '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Hokies 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 9 Bryan Bay '21
Erica Vandeveer '17
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 13 Samara Leith '19
Matteo Murrelle '19
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 2 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 22 Laura Kilgore '17 [1-4]
Bailey Hurst '20 [5-7]
Ian O'Connell '20 [1-4]
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 27 Jacob Vanaman '20
Jessica Anderson '20
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers 5 6 7 DNF 4 6 5 45 Danyte Reisinger '19
Lars Sobieski '19
William and Mary William and Mary Griffin 6 5 5 5 11 10 6 48 Emma Purinton '20 [1-4]
Sarah Raymond '20 [5-7]
Mason Szlapak '20 [1-4]
Ryan Biswas '20 [5-7]
American University American University Eagles 9 9 6 6 6 7 7 50 Stephen Anderson '18
Dylan Brady '19
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 8 8 8 9 7 5 10 55 Dillon Coppersmith '20 [1-4]
Alba Fernandez '20 [5-7]
Charles Neff '20 [1-4]
Gabriel Freeland '20 [5-7]
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 7 7 11 10 8 8 8 59 Kelsey Cumiskey '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Charles Carpenter '20 [3-4, 7]
Madeline Edwards '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Mary Christman '17 [3-4, 7]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 10 11 9 8 9 9 9 65 Charles Jr. Blair '17
Erin Griffon '20
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Cardinals 11 10 10 7 10 11 11 70 Samuel Mortin '16
Nicole Federici '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles1133557
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals2244668
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 13355779
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 244668810
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers779911112
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions55779911
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies668810101
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos881010113
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies991111224
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Griffin111122446
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe101011335

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
American UniversityAmerican University Eagles2244668
Catholic University of AmericaCatholic University of America Cardinals3355779
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 144668810
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains 255779911
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Retrievers881010113
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions668810101
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies779911112
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos991111224
Virginia TechVirginia Tech Hokies101011335
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Griffin1133557
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe111122446
School / Team SkipperCrew
American University American University Will Sellers '18 [1-7] Nicholas Del Giudice '19 [1-6]
Morgan Antonez '19 [7]
Eagles Stephen Anderson '18 Dylan Brady '19
Catholic University of America Catholic University of America Grace Wagner '19 Evan Smithers '19
Cardinals Samuel Mortin '16 Nicole Federici '19
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Amanda Attardi '17 [1-7] Lauren Levinson '20 [1-4, 7]
Bailey Hurst '20 [5-6]
Captains 1 Samara Leith '19 Matteo Murrelle '19
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Spencer Charney '20 Christian Denmark '19
Captains 2 Laura Kilgore '17 [1-4]
Bailey Hurst '20 [5-7]
Ian O'Connell '20 [1-4]
Penn State University Penn State University Kristian Sonsteby '20 David Stude '18
Nittany Lions Charles Jr. Blair '17 Erin Griffon '20
St. John's College St. John's College John Monday '19 [1-2, 7]
Jack Cooper '18 [3-6]
Elizabeth Skelton '18 [1-2, 7]
Sam Cooper '20 [3-6]
Johnnies Kelsey Cumiskey '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Charles Carpenter '20 [3-4, 7]
Madeline Edwards '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Mary Christman '17 [3-4, 7]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Nathan Thompson '17 Tina Nassehi '17
Retrievers Danyte Reisinger '19 Lars Sobieski '19
University of Virginia University of Virginia Julia Gowell '18 Waverlee Harvey '18
Wahoos Jacob Vanaman '20 Jessica Anderson '20
Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Nicholas Brady '19 Ashley Black '17
Hokies Bryan Bay '21 Erica Vandeveer '17
William and Mary William and Mary Nina Willms '20 [1-6]
August Williams '18 [7]
Elizabeth Plaster '20 [1-6]
Carol Peng '17 [7]
Griffin Emma Purinton '20 [1-4]
Sarah Raymond '20 [5-7]
Mason Szlapak '20 [1-4]
Ryan Biswas '20 [5-7]
William and Mary William and Mary Connor Chapin '20 [1-6]
Diana Haemer '20 [7]
Juliana Rustum '20 [1-6]
Anna Li '17 [7]
Tribe Dillon Coppersmith '20 [1-4]
Alba Fernandez '20 [5-7]
Charles Neff '20 [1-4]
Gabriel Freeland '20 [5-7]

Conditions — 09/17/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1021.6 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From ESE (110°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover29% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1021.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn* · S 4 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at William and Mary: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at William and Mary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at William and Mary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →