Christopher Newport University '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 47.34 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 10 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 (fleet 2.74) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 48–85 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 4–23 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 3–12 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 28–34 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 13–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (133 matches) the record is 48–85 against 46.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | John T. Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 1.00 | 1–11 | 2.9 | −1.56 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2020-02-29 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 2.90 | 3–12 | 2.2 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 38% |
| 2019-03-02 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.39 | 3.62 | 3–12 | 1.1 | +1.23 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.24 | 2.39 | 3–9 | 2.8 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2018-03-24 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 1.87 | 6–14 | 7.3 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2018-03-17 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | 1.40 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2018-03-10 | Woollum Team Race | skipper | 2.16 | 3.64 | 13–2 | 11.2 | +1.48 | 1.8 | 12% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.28 | 0.98 | 1–13 | 2.8 | −1.30 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 2017-03-25 | Hanbury Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.76 | 3.11 | 12–3 | 8.2 | +1.34 | 3.4 | 3% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| John T. Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.6 | 3.06 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 2.65 |
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.8 | 2.93 |
| Coed Showcase Qualifier B | Skipper | A | 18 | 15.0 | 2.36 |
| Chesapeake Invitational Sat FJ | Skipper | A | 7 | 14.3 | 2.15 |
| Coed Showcase Tournament | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.5 | 2.34 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.3 | 2.80 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.2 | 2.31 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.4 | 2.55 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | 2.46 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.5 | 2.82 |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 14.2 | 2.41 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Woollum Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 30% | — |
| The Grant Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 3.52 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.7 | 2.72 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | A, B | 13 | 12.2 | — |
| South Qualifier | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.5 | 2.58 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | 3.25 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.5 | 2.04 |
| Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.9 | 2.86 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| William and Mary Spring Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 2.09 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Crew | A | 3 | 16.3 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.4 | 2.76 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 12.4 | 1.81 |
| Colony Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.0 | 2.15 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A, B | 6 | 10.2 | 3.04 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Spencer Charney |  Hampton High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
