| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 13–2 |
| 2 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 13–2 |
| 3 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 8–7 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 8–7 |
| 5 |  |
Virginia Tech | Hokies | 2–13 |
| 6 |  |
William and Mary | Tribe | 1–14 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,751 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 45 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.288 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Christopher Newport University | 6.72 | 8.20 | 13–2 | 11.2 | +1.48 | 1.8 | 12% |
| 3 | SUNY Maritime College | 4.82 | 5.62 | 8–7 | 6.5 | +0.80 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 4 | Old Dominion University | 5.57 | 5.37 | 8–7 | 8.4 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | 3.46 | 2.80 | 2–13 | 3.0 | −0.66 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 6 | William and Mary | 2.92 | 2.17 | 1–14 | 1.8 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 1 | George Washington University | 8.35 | 7.19 | 13–2 | 14.2 | −1.16 | 1.2 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vir Menon | Christopher Newport University | 2.27 | 3.75 | 13–2 | 11.2 | +1.48 | 1.8 | 12% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | Christopher Newport University | 1.69 | 3.17 | 13–2 | 11.2 | +1.48 | 1.8 | 12% |
| Aidan Molesky | SUNY Maritime College | 1.52 | 2.32 | 8–7 | 6.5 | +0.80 | 0.9 | 22% |
| Alexander Ellis | SUNY Maritime College | 1.25 | 2.04 | 8–7 | 6.5 | +0.80 | 0.9 | 22% |
| Alec Chicoine | Old Dominion University | 2.56 | 2.36 | 8–7 | 8.4 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Brendon Wilkins | Old Dominion University | 1.67 | 1.47 | 8–7 | 8.4 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 75% |
| John Glenn | Old Dominion University | 1.32 | 1.12 | 8–7 | 8.4 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Benjamin Judelson | Virginia Tech | 0.80 | 0.14 | 2–13 | 3.0 | −0.66 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Alexander Holderness | William and Mary | 0.55 | -0.20 | 1–14 | 1.8 | −0.75 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Sam White | George Washington University | 2.72 | 1.56 | 13–2 | 14.2 | −1.16 | 1.2 | 97% |
| Adam Didomizio | George Washington University | 2.85 | 1.69 | 13–2 | 14.2 | −1.16 | 1.2 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Colonials | Captains | Privateers | Monarchs | Hokies | Tribe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Washington University Colonials | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| William and Mary Tribe | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Colonials | Captains | Privateers | Monarchs | Hokies | Tribe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Washington University Colonials | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| William and Mary Tribe | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Colonials | Captains | Privateers | Monarchs | Hokies | Tribe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Washington University Colonials | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| William and Mary Tribe | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Privateers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hokies | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Captains | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tribe | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tribe | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Captains | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hokies | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tribe | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hokies | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Captains | 2-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-3-6 DSQ |
| 10 | |
Tribe | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hokies | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Monarchs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hokies | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tribe | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tribe | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hokies | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Captains | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Privateers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hokies | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tribe | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Captains | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hokies | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tribe | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Hokies | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tribe | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Captains | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tribe | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hokies | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Captains | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Captains | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hokies | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tribe | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tribe | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Colonials | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hokies | 2-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Privateers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-3-6 |
| 37 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tribe | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Captains | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hokies | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Hokies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tribe | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Captains | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-3-6 |
| 43 | |
Privateers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hokies | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Colonials | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Captains | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 45 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tribe | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Adam Didomizio '19 Sam White '18 Wade Wagner '19 |
Zachary Lehan '20 Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 Mercedes Mcphee '19 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Captains | Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Spencer Charney '20 Vir Menon '20 |
Kaitlyn Reilly '18 Aerin Gilday '21 Anna Patterson '20 Henry Clune '21 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | Aidan Molesky '20 Alexander Ellis '21 Hunter Kahler '21 |
Kyle Gelderman '21 Hannah Argiros '21 John Wilcenski '21 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Alec Chicoine '18 Brendon Wilkins '18 John Glenn '22 |
Makalynne Dyer '22 Victoria Ewing '19 Julia Williams-Portland '21 Stephen Guglielmo '19 |
|
Virginia Tech | Hokies | Benjamin Judelson '21 Nathan Gibson '19 Reid Shanabrook '22 |
Gustav Berner '21 Natalie Lovelace '20 Emma Corbitt '19 |
|
William and Mary | Tribe | Alexander Holderness '21 Connor Chapin '20 Patrick Mazzeo '18 |
Sophia Jefferson '21 Grace Holloway '21 Daniel Powers '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
